Iraq, the unraveling (XXVI): What's going on in Anbar?

Posted By Thomas E. Ricks Monday, October 12, 2009 - 1:51 PM Share

On Sunday there were three car bombings in Ramadi, and that follows a big one in Fallujah the other day. Anyone got an informed view of what is happening out there?

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R.HOWE

2:37 PM ET

October 12, 2009

Al Qaeda would like nothing

Al Qaeda would like nothing better than to convince public opinion and our politicians that we need to engage more (i.e.,put more US lives at risk)in Iraq . . . AND send 40,000 more troops to Afghanistan.

The first history lesson I received was that you can't beat a nationalistic group on their own turf. The second lesson was that guerrillas beats spit and polish every time. I was 8 at the time, but by and large these maxims are still true, 58 years later.

John McCain can appear on CNN till the cows come home, but I think the public is decided on this: Listen to Biden.

JPWREL

4:19 PM ET

October 12, 2009

Oh you want informed views?

Oh you want informed views? We have had eight years of ‘official’ informed views about Iraq and we are still in a state of complete policy confusion. This pretty much reflects the total political fiasco of our decision to engage in a military occupation of Iraq.

This uninformed view suggests that as we withdraw from Iraq it will revert to its historical tradition of tribal politics but this time rather than a brutal Sunni dictatorship threatening the western flank of Iran a majority Shiite autocracy (excluding the Kurds) will be allied to the larger interests of their co-religious brethren in Tehran.

BILL ARDOLINO

10:51 PM ET

October 12, 2009

(Not specifically) Informed View

I don't have specific information regarding these bombings, but any bombing in Anbar has two immediate suspects:

1. Bona fide remnants of AQI with definitive command and control back to AQHQ (which still has lesser interest in fast American withdrawal from Iraq, not the opposite, as the commenter above suggests)

2. Tribal elements expressing competition via means other than newfound avenues of political engagement. To be clear, this may represent almost the same thing as option #1, since AQI was simply a chosen ally for many of the warring subtribes, whereas other subtribes picked the Americans. Though most embedded foreign insurgent advisors and former AQI-affiliated tribal heads are scattered and on the lamb, some are still using the familiar bag of tricks to assassinate enemies or just make a statement about security. There are of course many other non-AQI insurgent organizations that were expressions of tribal competition and power-grabbing, as much as they were anti-occupation.

1 and 2 are *not* mutually exclusive.

For specific examples: two sets of bombings in Anbar I *did* have pretty good information on were conducted by:

1. A shady representative of the IIP political party/Hamas al Iraq against members of his own party who did not accede to his methods or authority.

2. Members of an AQI-affiliated Albu Issa subtribe who were continuing their historical yet accelerated beef/civil war with a more historically prosperous subtribe that had overtly allied with the US.

Some incidence of bombings, especially against soft targets, will continue. This is not, by itself, indicative of an overall meltdown of the Province.

PIBE04

7:00 PM ET

October 12, 2009

iraq withdrawal ?

Mr. Ricks,

I know you have written about this before when the SOFA 2011 agreement was announcement, but I am very interested in your take on it now. Do you see the U.S. military completely leaving by 2011 or even 2010? Or will it just be a smaller number and called advisors, thus getting around the SOFA?

pibe

TOM RICKS

8:31 PM ET

October 12, 2009

My bet is that there will still be 20,000 U.S. troops in Iraq in 2012. And there may even may be as many as 40,000 in 2015.
Best,
Tom

PIBE04

3:15 AM ET

October 13, 2009

Tom, Thanks for the reply. I

Tom,

Thanks for the reply. I was thinking that something similar to your estimate will be what happens even though all the news is about a complete pullout.

pibe

JWING

2:25 AM ET

October 13, 2009

Violence Up But Only Slightly

Tom, try reading this:

http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2009/08/violence-up-in-anbar.html

Attacks are up in Anbar over the last couple months, but only slightly, and it's nowhere near more violent areas like Mosul. There are still some Al Qaeda elements in the province, but some of the attacks are probably also political since the Awakening movement has splintered into several different factions, some of which really don't like each other. Some might be trying to undermine Sheikh Abu Risha, who got the most seats in the 2009 provincial elections.

COURTNEYME109

3:27 AM ET

October 13, 2009

Iranian Minions

Probably al Qods acting out