Thursday, September 24, 2009 - 4:24 PM

In the decade or so that I've been keeping an eye on Gen. David Petraeus, I've noticed that the more worried he gets, the more boring his public pronouncements become.
If I'm right, his mind-numbing appearance yesterday at a Marine Corps conference on counterinsurgency is a leading indicator that he is profoundly worried. One reporter told me after the event that she fell asleep during it. I am guessing Petraeus is fretting primarily about President Obama's public dithering on Afghanistan strategy, but perhaps also about some weird vibes inside the U.S. official establishment in Baghdad.
Normally I don't mind when Petraeus serves up lukewarm leftovers. It's his right, after all. And the precepts of being a general is to never let them see you sweat, smooth out the highs and lows, and steady as she goes. But I thought that reading aloud Powerpoints that I think of as "Your Friend Mr. CENTCOM" to an audience heavy with Marine officers who have led regiments, battalions, companies, and platoons in Iraq and Afghanistan, and are prepping to go back, was at best awkward and at worst insulting.
The one hint time I thought he tiptoed into current controversies was the conclusion on one slide: "Countering Terrorism requires more than Counter-Terrorist Forces." On the face of it, this would appear to show him siding with Gen. McChrystal and against VP Biden on whether to send additional troops to Afghanistan, or to fall back on a "raiding" strategy. (By the way, when was the last time Biden was right about anything?) But Petraeus was quick to note that this was an old slide, not something new or about Afghanistan in particular.
The other mildly interesting comment he made was when he was asked about similarities between Afghanistan and Vietnam. "There are some similarities," said Petraeus, who noted that his doctoral dissertation at Princeton was about how the Vietnam War affected the U.S. Army's view of the use of force. "But I think the biggest lesson of Vietnam is to not be a prisoner of lessons you may have learned."
Win McNamee/Getty Images
Thanks for pointing out that our current vice president's track record related to foreign policy pronouncements and ideas is, at best, confusing.
Which is it Mr. Vice President: Russia-important partner for peace and stability or a failing oil oligarchy? Does he still want to divide Iraq into three parts?
I can't help but wonder that the Democrat's biggest challenge in 2011 will be finding a way to move Joe off the ballot and an electable Obama part II candidate on. I can already imagine the, "I need to spend more time with my family..." speech.
On the other hand, M.r Biden is a life-long Democrat, which puts him on the better side of nearly all issues facing our nation — now and throughout his career.
the good general's goal was to ensure he did not make any headlines. The press is just waiting to pounce on any gap between the uniforms and the suits.
Gen Petraeus is too smart to get himself caught in a "we are destined to rule the world with our British allies" moment at a garden club meeting.
rpm,
you are dead-on. Dave Petraeus is a very good strategist as he was in pulling Iraq out of headlines during the election campaign with surge. He is doing the same now until a national strategy congeals in DC. This is another contribution by him to our national security.
Wasn't the General traveling and speaking across the Atlantic recently?
Maybe the man's just a little tired, and along with the strain of being CENTCOM, it just caught-up with him for the moment - and not a defining moment - there are no defining moments in counter-insurgency.
"But I think the biggest lesson of Vietnam is to not be a prisoner of lessons you may have learned."
Which is precisely what worries me - that we are too eager to apply lessons learned in Iraq to what appears to be a vastly different situation in Afghanistan.
Blame the Army for the Army's Shortcomings
The US Army is like an ox cart: slow, ponderous, difficult to move and to steer. Rumsfeld had to replace a layer of flags just to get transformation a fair hearing. In recent months, the same kind of flag transplant is on-going to bring in leaders at least willing to listen to COIN as an alternative to breaking things up as a useful operational art.
Army conjures up 4 layers of warfare, grand strategy (the province of top brass and the political leadership ... and source of great tension), military strategy (where armchair generals seem to spend most of their time), operational art (i.e., what do you need to know, have, and do to actually use the military instrument in the real world), and tactics (the raw fundamentals of directing man and machine in the field).
It's that operational-art layer where Army usually gets it wrong. COIN as operational art has to be continually reinvented. It competes constantly with the armor/artillery/infantry main-force approach to combat and combat-like environments. Four real lessons that should have been learned from Vietnam but which have little credibility today:
- One size does not fit all
- Flexible response is a force-multiplier
- The US Army does not learn lessons, it changes leaders
- The US Army always thinks that it is its own sole customer
Equip the Army with more operational-art concepts and a more flexible mindset and it might - sometimes and perhaps with better than random likelihood - it might be able to actually do the occasional thing well, start to finish. The real lesson from Vietnam and fully applicable to the current world it finds itself in: the US Army always needs an intelligent and extremely capable ox cart driver ... and rarely does it have one.
The Professional Army is profoundly screwed up and hasn't got it right since the time when it was swamped with amateurs. That was the Second World War. We won that one.
I think we should be happy as a nation that Obama has taken the time to re-consider Afghanistan and make public comments that show his hesitancy to engage more troops in what appears to be a lost cause. His standard that the war has to be achievable is very wise.
Tom Ricks has a lot of experience as a journalist covering military affairs, but he doesn't have a lot of experience as a journalist covering US politics relating to non-military/foreign policy affairs.
So maybe Mr. Ricks should stick to his expertise rather than brazenly assert that the Vice President of the United States is, effectively, an idiot. This isn't Dick Cheney, after all.
Ok, tell me the last time Biden was right about anything.
What I remember is a guy who is a leading indicator of pretty much the wrong strategy on anything.
If I am wrong--great, when?
According to the wiki, Biden has fought to protect teacher unions and other unions' rights, opposed drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, supports green energy programs, is concerned about global warming, cosponsored the Global Warming Pollution Reduction Act. Kept Bork off the Supreme Court, but not Thomas (so that's a tradeoff), has supported bankrupcy bills that protect homeowners and stop anti-abortion groups from discharging their fines, worked arms control issues with the Soviets, worked to settle the Balkans in the 1990s.
He was against invading Iraq in 1990 but for invading Iraq in 2002, so yeah, that's not consistent. But he's a leader, he's always pushing forward, and he's been right more often than wrong.
I attended General Petraeus's speech last week over here in London. He was very boring, even though he had a very British Establishment audience listening very sympathetically. If he was feeling impatient about the White House review of McChrystal's submission, he did not betray it in the slightest.
If I were to speculate on what was worrying the General, I would say it was the Afghan government -- he freely acknowledged how troubling the presidential election was, and in talking about the political side of COIN he placed great emphasis on working with local authorities -- he was deliberately vague about Kabul.
"By the way, when was the last time Biden was right about anything?"
Come on, Tom, that comment is beneath you. Biden's a smart guy, he didn't just walk into the White House and sit down at the VP desk. You want to say that he often talks before engaging his brain, fine, but he's had a lot of good ideas, and the idea that we should scale back in AF and do COIN while focusing on CT in PAK, let the Afghani security forces do what they are supposed to do, makes a lot of sense. And he happens to have Gen (ret) Krulak, COL (ret) Pat Lang, and a lot of other supporters on that idea.
Depends on what the goals are. By all accounts, the "Afghani security forces" aren't ready to prepare lunch, much less secure their nation with force. As for support from military command ... LBJ had plenty of military support for his Vietnam policies, too. Didn't turn out so well.
Of course, Biden being Biden, he'll do a 180 turn on this issue, too, then deny he ever held the former opinion. The guy's a hack from the word go, and I couldn't care less which party he belongs to (since they're both utterly corrupted by lobbyists and profit/nonprofit cash flow).
What’s the story with Petraeus's Latin American tin pot dictator look? MacArthur and Ike managed to wear just their rank and every now and then a ribbon or two on their uniforms. Of course Mac and Ike actually accomplished something so it probably wasn't necessary for them to doll up their uniforms to impress the clueless public and impressionable sycophantic military commentators.
Surely a 4-star could get away with not following this rule, but soldiers/officers are supposed to wear the ribbons they rate. And as for not accomplishing anything, I am pretty sure you do not know what you are talking about.
Don: I have seen it with my own eyes. The ribbons go 2/3s the way down his back. I tried to take a photo, but my impressionable sycophaticism slowed me down and by the time my camera was up, he had turned already. Foiled again!
AR 360-1 is quite clear in the regulations for uniform wear and proper awards. No one to include 4 star generals are exempt from regulations. Using McArthur, Ike or Patton as examples is just stupid. They were allowed to design their own uniforms in the 40's for God's sake. This is a professional modern Army. If your best criticism of General Petraeus is that he wears all of the badges, awards and ribbons he has earned in over 35 years of military service then you need to just shut the F up and put your Band of Brothers DVD's back in and reminisce about the good old days.
How about during most of the 08 campaign, when he was hammering on incessantly about how we need to focus more on our strategy towards Pakistan and ditch our Musharraf-centered approach? I guess that was another classic dumb Biden move?
I could of course go on and on about domestic policy - Violence Against Women, the mid 90s crime bill, etc.
Or returning to foreign policy, how about his consistent prodding of Karzai to combat the corruption in his own government, or his bill now being shepherded through the Congress on dramatically increasing foreign civilian assistance to Pakistan?
Or his prodding during the Bush years and in the campaign for a strategy of engagement not verbose belligerence towards Iran?
Really goofed there, didn't he? I'd really prefer Ricks stick to stuff he knows rather than off-offhandedly dismissing someone he doesn't know much about outside the context of Iraq and Afghanistan.
When this debacle began, there were a lot of troops sent to Afghanistan, but the majority were quickly sent to guard the Iraqi Oil Ministry and for several years, Afghanistan was referred to as “The Forgotten War” by the troops who had served there. Apparently those in the white house didn’t care much about Afghanistan until things got much worse and by that time it may have been too late. If the Army had been allowed to fight like General Shinseki stated at the onset, chances are our forces may have made a significant difference, but Cheney, Rumsfeld , et al wanted a cheap quick war. I know the civilians are the ones to tell you you’re going to war, but when did they get qualified to tell generals how to fight wars?
Regarding the bit about being a prisoner of lessons learned, as long as you run a military force with conventional minds, you will constantly fight a conventional war. While the weapons may change, the strategy will remain constant.
Do you really think that if Rumsfeld had listened to Shinseki things would have turned out well? Is the problem that there were not enough troops? or is the problem that we tried to topple a government, set up a new form of government in a foreign country which we understood little about. Had we had enough troops, the decesion to disband the Iraqi Army, de-bathify the government and other poor decesions would still have been made.
As far as civilians being qualified to tell the generals how to fight. Yep, that's how a system of effective civil-military relations works. When you listen only to Generals, you get the Army run by Casey in Iraq. Read an Army at Dawn by Rick Atkinson; had civilians listened to our Generals all the time, the invasion would have occured in 1942/43, long before we were prepared to fight.
How about the Civil War, Lincoln and his generals. The relationship between Bismark and Von Moulke. The list goes on and on.
To quote Gregg Easterbrook:
Turning to the United States Constitution, George W. Bush said in Washington in 2007, "I don't think Congress ought to be running the war." The Founding Fathers said in Philadelphia in 1789, "The Congress shall have the power to ... declare war, grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal, and make rules concerning captures on land and water." The founders were quite clear that they wanted Congress running wars, among other things declaring only Congress could approve funds "to raise and support armies" and that congressional approval for military spending might last no longer than two years.
What are "letters of marque and reprisal?" The writers of United States Constitution assumed the new nation would have a permanent navy but no standing army: If an army was needed, it would be raised and funded on a two-year basis. Yet the framers knew international circumstances might call for military action short of sending an army into battle. Letters of marque grant to mercenaries -- at the time, it was normal for nations to retain soldiers-for-hire -- the right to act in America's name for a specific purpose, such as taking back some thing or location seized by privateers. Letters of reprisal could confer on the Navy, or on mercenaries, color of the flag to conduct a specific retaliation in America's name. The modern meaning of "letters of marque and reprisal" is "commando raids and air strikes."
So the Founding Fathers did not merely grant Congress sole power to declare war -- they expected Congress to be involved in the conduct of war, by such means as issuing specific instructions regarding what could and could not be attacked on land or water. The Commander in Chief clause of the Constitution mainly serves to make clear that the executive is superior to the military -- the framers did not want the U.S. military resisting civilian control, as did some European militaries of the era.
The lesson we learn in every war is to learn from your expierance, but not to be captured by it. We learn from Vietnam, but should not be fall back to it as the comparison for every conflict, there is much more to military history than Vietnam to learn from.
This whole situation in Afghanistan is eerily similar to the lost decade we experienced in Vietnam, when we allowed the Diem family to sap the will of the nation to resist efforts by the North to undermine their legitimacy. The Bush administration allowed this situation to fester in Afghanistan for almost eight years, doing even less to correct than we did in Vietnam back in the late 1950s. Now, we face a crisis with a clapped-out Army, depleted by a worthless adventure in Iraq. Trying to make up for lost time requires some major sacrifice by everybody, which includes some of the Army brass who might try falling on their swords publicly to atone for their bad judgment during the past eight years.
Further, this talk about creating Afghani security forces to deter the Taliban and AQ sounds like a replay of the Regional Forces/Popular Forces debate which raged during Vietnam. These local militia were created in response to the deteriorating situation in Vietnam in the late 1950s. They performed wonderfully through the early 1960s, as shown by how much success the US and the Republic of South Vietnam had against the Viet Cong until the Diem regime was overthrown. I seem to remember hearing that the acted mostly as a supply depot for the VC, typically losing much of their weaponry and ammunition in any engagement. Does anyone imagine that we would see different results this time? I'd like to know why.
Mr. Ricks,
It seems, General McCrystal has put the ox before the cart. By this I mean, should have not the President had a strategy, before the General decided on the tactics? It seems the General devised the strategy, and told the President to give him the tactics.
Also, the election in Afganistan seems to have caused alot of concern, but did we have a non-corrrupt legitimate government in Iraq, when we conducted the surge?
Sincerely,
11bravo
Whether Biden is right or wrong is not the issue. The issue is after 9 years(?) "what are we doing in Afghanistan?" Can anyone in Government articulate a position that can be understood and accepted by the people? We are spending valuable lives and resources chasing a ghost. Its time to pack up and leave, if they come after us we'll fight them.
If the CIA had not got involved with Afghanistan, when Russia was there, would we be having these problems today. Perhaps the World Trade center would still be standing and our troops at home. Hard to tell but those that think they are smarter than any one else on foreign policy are just nuts. Which this writer seems to think he is. If Iraq had been split into three provinces would it be better of than today? Who can say,but perhaps Mr Biden was right about that. How many times has this writer been dead wrong on what he has written, this being one. I have my opinions about this war, but first I have to know just why we are there now. What is the objective? Chasing ghost is right. I feel that troops on the ground in this kind of war is not the winning way, more technology is needed and for the Army to get into the 21 Century. But it is a decision that the President has to make, not me, thank God.
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