Iraq, the unraveling (XXI): An Iraqi mayor's worried assessment

This is very true for the police, which are local in character and thus more open to influence by whatever power brokers exist. The National Police are supposedly all cleaned up since they fired almost the entire officer corps and leadership. The Army I think less so. One exception is Kurdish units which have proven to be loyal to the KDP and PUK rather than Baghdad. Ex: when Maliki sent forces into the Khanaqin district in Diyala in July 08 one Iraqi unit of Kurds refused orders, and another commander marched his unit back to Kurdistan. The army and police in Anbar are also mostly from the tribes and Awakening. At the same time, the Iraqi army has taken in thousands of former officers, many of them Sunnis, from the old Army.

That being said I see one major problem with Iraq's different factions going to war, a cause. Sheikh Abu Risa in Anbar for example, wants to be as close to Maliki and Bahgdad as possible. If the SIIC was to fight anyone it wouldn't be the Sunnis at this point but rather Maliki, and I don't think he could do anything that would provoke that kind of response, especially because he's flirting with rejoining them in the United Alliance for the 2010 elections.

Look the political parties are going to have all kinds of influence in Iraq whether it be the security forces, the ministries, etc. I still don't see any signs that they are going to go to war however. Remember every couple months there is a Shiite religious event and they ALWAYS get bombed, yet there's been no retaliation for almost two years now. I think that says a lot.

In all the press attendant to the second battle in Tal Afar, and the great success we declared for McMasters 3rd ACR, I never heard it reported that the Mayor was a retired 2-star officer from Saddam's air defense force. I still don't know whether he's Turkmen, which flavor of mosque his family favors, or how 'mayors' were selected during his term. Mayor/Gen. al-Jabouri's use of US Army-english is genius level, if that's his third language.

I do remember that our press in 2005 was so puzzled at those Turkmen (whazat?) refusing to evacuate the free-fire zone their town had become for the safety of a refugee camp guarded by Kurdish troops. ('The Pesh are some kind of Sunni, the Turkmen mostly Sunni, what's up with all the fear? Those crazy Iraqis...')

I don't say these things to discredit a faculty member or paper presented at one of our command colleges. I do wish to note that ignorance of the human terrain we war in is a feature of info ops against what Rumsfeld termed 'the strategic center'; that's us, fellow voters, the guarantors of the war-debt. It's almost like a patriotic duty to not notice.

Mr. Rick's link to the Mayor-General's IA sectarian order of battle info is welcome, even if it is so staggeringly unusual that cross-checking the line-up is a job for pros with classified access. Interesting that no IA divisions were identified with Barzani's clan, which brings me back around to the question of al-Jabouri's provenance and career path.

The Rand study linked by FP/Abu Lynch says that armed tension between GOI and Barzani's KRG is the single most destabilizing factor in the coming withdrawal period.

http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/08/06/rand_usip_withdrawing_from_iraq

Another day and more bad news out of Iraq. Are there any solutions? There seem to be mountains and mountains of problems, and every time I turn again, it only gets worse. What's to be done? What can be done? The center clearly cannot hold, so what can be done to stem the anarchy? (Other than a slouching rough beast, obviously.)

isn't predominately filled with people from one political party or religious group.

Oh wait, it is.
(www.onviolence.com)

As long as we're taking advantage of Tom's vacation to post plugs, I'll toss Air Academy grad and honorably retired adjutant Mikey Weinstein's crusade on the table.

http://www.militaryreligiousfreedom.org/

Eric C, your URL reminds me of a cartoon I once drew to the tag line: "Eschew Wonton Violence"
;)

Interesting that no IA divisions were identified with Barzani's clan, which brings me back around to the question of al-Jabouri's provenance and career path.
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I don't think he was listing every political party and their influence in the army. Rather he covers the 4 main actors in Iraqi politics now, Maliki, the Kurds, the Sunnis and the Shiites.

Now we know the real reason Tom Ricks didn't want to look for a guest-blogger: he can't stop himself from posting, even on vacation. I think some kind of intervention may be called for here.

Here's my take on the mayor's paper:
http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2009/08/critique-of-mayors-warning-of.html

There is definitely politicization in the security forces, especially the local police. There's better leadership in both Defense and Interior Ministries, which is a good turn, but Maliki is trying to appoint commanders loyal to him, something not mentioned in the paper. There are some major problems with the mayor's examples. He uses quotes that he says are about the armed forces but aren't. Says that Maliki's use of the security forces in northern Iraq are what should be done to stop politicization, yet the deployments and removal of Kurdish officers, is a political move by Maliki to pressure Kurdistan. Says that Sunni neighbors should be brought in to influence Iraq's political parties not to interfere in Iraq's security forces, when those Sunni Arab countries have little influence in Iraq and are largely standoffish towards the Shiite and Kurdish parties. He constantly warns of a sectarian civil war but doesn't mention that most of Iraq's problems are increasingly being dealt with in the political arena. In the end he does have some good recommendations like rotating units around the country, but his argument is all over the place and could've been done much better.

Iraq issue is becoming hotter
now. It comes back :)