Sean Gourley checks in

Tue, 07/14/2009 - 11:04am

Remember when I sent up a flare asking for help in understanding physicist Sean Gourley's claim that he has found a mathematical pattern of violence in different wars?

We seem to have a better class of reader than even I thought. Professor Gourley himself responds with this note, which I am publishing with his permission:

With this new approach we can do several important things that were not possible before. We can understand the underlying structure of an insurgency i.e. how an insurgency 'decides' to distribute its forces (weapons, people, money etc). Further, we can explain why this kind of insurgent structure emerges in multiple different conflict zones around the world. We can estimate the number of autonomous insurgent groups operating within a theatre of war. We can monitor and track a conflict through time to see how either sides strategies are affecting the state of the war. Finally we can compare the mathematical patterns of current ongoing wars with past wars to estimate how close they are to ending."

This is a pretty sweeping set of assertions. I still don't see it. But that may be my fault. Smart, statistically-comfortable readers: Do you see support for these claims?

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Thomas E. Ricks | Permalink | | Comments? Login or register
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Cryptonomicon

by Amelia_G on Tue, 07/14/2009 - 11:35am

Forgive me for not understanding much of any of this, but Professor Gourley's note reminds me of Neal Stephenson's fictional WWII group that traveled around the globe creating incidents designed to confuse any statistical analysis that might discover the Allies had cracked the Enigma code.

Excellent book

by If on Tue, 07/14/2009 - 6:55pm

and excellent recall.

Tracking Time?

by Tyrtaios on Tue, 07/14/2009 - 1:39pm

Though I'm a bit skeptical, one statment caught my eye: "We can monitor and track a conflict through time to see how either sides strategies are affecting the state of the war."

The classic example of time would be Vietnam, where both France and America found the enemy used time as a weapon, if you consider that the Vietminh and later the Vietcong/NVA, protracted the conflict, waiting for France and America to tire of it.

J'ai une question? how much time does the prof need to start working his formula on Afghanistan?

"Time is the condition to be won to defeat the enemy. In military affairs time is of prime importance." - guess who?

That would be Uncle Ho

by If on Tue, 07/14/2009 - 6:49pm

Ho Chi Minh

Xin chao If

by Tyrtaios on Tue, 07/14/2009 - 11:20pm

Xin chao If, ban co khoe khong? Good Answer. Drinks on me at the Stars and Bars in Monte Carlo. If I'm late, start a tab in my absence! : - )

Preprint needed for assessment

by Steven Thomas Smith on Tue, 07/14/2009 - 12:40pm

statistically-comfortable readers: Do you see support for these claims?

We'd need a link to a preprint on arXiv or equivalent to properly evaluate such claims, which are indeed sweeping. Of particular interest would be an explanation of both the statistical methods and tests being used, and how these support the conclusions presented above. I do not yet see anything on Google Scholar or elsewhere that links to a publication of this work, though it may be forthcoming. The only Google hit appears to be this brief abstract, which is insufficiently detailed to answer the good questions posed by Tom and others.

Power-law caveats

by Steven Thomas Smith on Tue, 07/14/2009 - 1:26pm

A few caveats about power-law based analysis, from Clauset et al., "Power-law distributions in empirical data":

“Commonly used methods for analyzing power-law data, such as least-squares fitting, can produce substantially inaccurate estimates of parameters for power-law distributions, and even in cases where such methods return accurate answers they are still unsatisfactory because they give no indication of whether the data obey a power law at all. …

“the distributions for … wars [and] terrorism are plausible power laws, but they are also plausible log-normals and stretched exponentials. In cases such as these, it is important to look at physical motivating or theoretical factors to make a sensible judgment about the which distributional form is more reasonable—we must consider whether there is a mechanistic or other non-statistical argument favoring one distribution or another. …

“apparent power-law behavior is, in some cases at least, the result of wishful thinking. …

“the common practice of identifying and quantifying power-law distributions by the approximately straight-line behavior of a histogram on a doubly logarithmic plot should not be trusted: such straight-line behavior is a necessary but by no means sufficient condition for true power-law behavior. Instead we have presented a statistically principled set of techniques that allow for the validation and quantification of power laws.”

plausible, with some cautions

by dougsamuelson on Tue, 07/14/2009 - 2:23pm

I'd have to see the math to evaluate it. The assumptions underlying the technique are of critical importance, and only careful, detailed analysis of the math makes it possible (and still difficult) to identify all the assumptions. In general, current pattern recognition techniques are quite powerful, and much of the sort of detection Dr. Gourley claims can, in fact, be done. In general, sweeping claims with vague support are not credible. One caveat, even for the best analyses: as soon as any predictive method with policy implications becomes public, expect the other side to start finding ways to mess with the data we get and thus diminish our ability to make inferences.

People learn

by Codyed on Tue, 07/14/2009 - 2:36pm

Just another whiz kid who will be proven wrong by a bunch of cave dwellers with AK-47s. As long as individuals have the capacity to learn and change their behavior, they will seek out ways to circumvent the advantages of their enemies. If a low-IQ prison inmate can fashion a shiv out of the most simplest of materials (like a toothbrush), then what is to keep a relatively smart insurgent from overcoming new barriers place in front of him by his enemies?

You need to give physicists a lot more credit

by socal55 on Tue, 07/14/2009 - 4:57pm

It was after all physicists employed by bond rating agencies like Moody's that were able to demonstrate with mathematical formulas that thousands of mortgages given to people who could not afford them can be sliced and diced then repackaged and sold as AAA rated securities. In other words they can turn lead into gold!

Lead

by Grant on Wed, 07/15/2009 - 12:42am

Literally actually. Though not for very long and not in large amounts.

I'll believe it when I see it...

by If on Tue, 07/14/2009 - 7:02pm

Like all good scientists, the onus is on Dr Gourley to make predictions based upon his theory that can either be proven or falsified.

I think the cave dwellers with AK-47s will have the last laugh.

giving physicists credit

by dougsamuelson on Wed, 07/15/2009 - 12:10am

Physicists invented nuclear weapons, so I'm inclined to listen respectfully when they say they have something that might be useful in warfare. I wouldn't say physicists were primarily responsible for the financial mess, either.

If living in a cave dodging incoming fire is your idea of a good time, then maybe indeed the cave dwellers with AK-47s are destined to end up happy. That's not the way I'd bet, though.

Registan nails it

by tom ricks on Wed, 07/15/2009 - 9:49am

Josh Foust takes time away from the Palm Bar at the Foreign Correspondents' Club on the wrong side of Kandahar to point out that he already has taken on this issue. I think he has it exactly right at:

http://www.registan.net/index.php/2009/05/18/the-unthinkable-war/

Take-away quote: "This is a classic example of someone trying to dig deeply into a subject with which he is obviously unfamiliar, and trying to draw broad, appealing, but ultimately unsupportable claims."

That says exactly what I was sensing but was too inarticulate to write.

Foust also points to this:

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009/05/physicists-fool-proof-war-forumla-just-add-media-accounts/

My thoughts, for what it's worth

by DrewConway on Wed, 07/15/2009 - 11:33am

Tom,

Your revisiting of this talk, and Sean's response, have motivated me to consider this research in more detail.

Unfortunately, it is a bit too much for a comment, so I blogged it. Enjoy.

The Mathematics of War, Revisited