Posted By Thomas E. Ricks Share

Who lost Iraq? I think the Bush administration did, by launching a misbegotten preemptive war on false premises. Peter Feaver (full disclosure: an old and good friend, despite everything) doesn't think so. And his former colleague John Hannah in the White House Fantasy League is winding up to blame Obama.

I'm not throwing beanballs, Peter! I'm just trying to call the balls and strikes. But of course the Bush adminstration always had a weakness for Curveballs. Back into the stockade, you two.

FadderUri/Flickr

 
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HARDRADA

11:53 PM ET

July 1, 2009

The politically inconvenient answer is correct

The American public lost Iraq. Sure, you can say Bush and Cheney goaded us into a poorly planned pre-emptive war against a country that wasn't a serious threat, but I seem to remember the public approving this plan overwhelmingly back in 2003.

But as soon as it (predictably) became clear that progress would come at a higher cost in blood and money than the White House said initially, Iraq suddenly wasn't as convenient as we thought it would be in 2002. And suddenly, it became "Bush's war," instead of a war the American public CHOSE to undertake with overwhelming enthusiasm.
(And don't tell me the American people weren't overwhelmingly enthusiastic about this war at the start. Remember "Kick their ass, take their gas?")

Because, really, nobody thought about the long-term implications of this. We assumed Bush and Cheney would take care of those. Because, frankly, what does it matter to anyone? How does Iraq affect YOUR daily life, Thomas Ricks? It's just a thing on the TV.

 

TOM RICKS

2:17 AM ET

July 2, 2009

My life

Actually, Iraq kind of dominates my life. But this is not an approach I would recommend.

 

JASON SIGGER

3:22 PM ET

July 2, 2009

You're clearly insane

Look at the public polls in late 2002 - early 2003. Half the public supported an invasion, the other half didn't. It was hardly "overwhelming." Congress gave up its oversight responsibilities and handed Bush a blank check. It ought to be clear that the White House and Defense Department had the responsibility to plan and execute a responsible operation, and guess what? They didn't.

It may be "just a thing on the TV" to you, but to thousands of US families it's pretty personal. It affects my livihood, since the US govt decided that we ought to be able to spend $10-12 billion A MONTH for a decade or more, if necessary, to achieve... what exactly? That money's coming out of my paycheck either in taxes or govt services or both.

 

BILL KELLER

1:37 AM ET

July 2, 2009

Something from an old textbook....

comes to mind. It was a study on the thug-like activities of the GOP McCarthy dildos (after the Mao victory in China) whose heirs tend to gather in the Senate, in preacher tents and under rocks (Fox, Wash Times, sides of ammo and tobacco boxes, airport and foreign toilets).

Opening admonition - you can't lose what you don't have.

Outside of the aftershock of the March sprint to Baghdad against an army more fit for a clown act than defense, there was never the intent or investment to "have" Iraq. 1870 Prussian to Paris was the model. Hit extract leave. Pay off some patrons around the world and reward the hacks at home. It was accomplished.

Aftermath - like the debt from supply side to rich men tax cuts - that is debris for those other wogs to inherit. Distract with blaming those different people.

There is nothing to lose for those rewarded.

 

CHARLIEFORD

2:24 AM ET

July 2, 2009

OK, I confess . . .

. . . I did.

I didn't mean to. But some mean kids were chasing me home from the bus stop, and I dropped my book bag, and stuff went everywhere, and when I got home, it wasn't there.

I went back and looked, but it was dark, and I couldn't see very well, and, suffice it to say, I couldn't find it.

And now it's lost.

 

EMRYS56

2:37 AM ET

July 2, 2009

RE: The politically inconvenient answer is correct

I agree with Hardrada that, to a large degree, the American public did help lose the Iraq war but not with his reasoning. Initially, large segments of the public believed, as was frequently alluded to by the Bush administration and his Neocon supporters, Saddam was in cahoots with Al Quaeda in causing the 911 attacks. In addition, the public was given to believe that Saddam's Iraq was on the verge of developing a nuclear weapon, which could be used to directly threaten us. When these "assertions" were not sustainable by the facts on the ground (and the Bush administration tried hard to hid them from the public), then Americans started looking at what was left of the logic in invading Iraq. Only then, in my opinion, did susport for the war effort dissipate. It wasn't simply that when it "became clear that progress would come at a higher cost in blood and money than the White House said," that Americans gave up. That was undoubtly a factor, but in my opinion it was the realization that they had been suckered into an unnecessary war that did it.

 

WORDSMITH FROM FLOPPINGACES.NET

5:47 PM ET

July 11, 2009

emrys56 wrote: "Initially,

emrys56 wrote:

"Initially, large segments of the public believed, as was frequently alluded to by the Bush administration and his Neocon supporters, Saddam was in cahoots with Al Quaeda in causing the 911 attacks."

I think public belief was shaped in no small part by media reports through the 90's that drew contacts between Saddam and bin Laden. Also, after 9/11, media confusion over Saddam/911 and Saddam/al Qaeda. Those are two different arguments. Given that Saddam was a constant menace throughout the 90's, it was only natural on the heels of 9/11 to not leave Iraq as a stone unturned and to question whether or not he played a part in the events of Sept 11th. Any Administration that did not pose such a question would have been derelict in duty. The immediate Sunday after 9/11, Dick Cheney was on MtP, and Russert asked Cheney "Do we have any evidence linking Saddam Hussein or Iraqis to this operation?" and Cheney flatout said "No."

Tying Saddam to 9/11 never became a part of the Administration's justification for war. The only connection there, is in how Saddam relates to the GWoT- not that he helped orchestrate 9/11. The fear was that Saddam, who made no secrets about his love of wmd and hostility toward America, could use terrorist proxies to deliver a wmd attack. And Saddam did have extensive ties to Islamic terrorism.

Part of the confusion is in how al Qaeda is misperceived. It should more properly be referred to as the al Qaeda network, as the barriers distinguishing one jihad group from another aren't always clear-cut. Cells merge, barriers dissolve, and there is plenty of shared ideology, goals, cross-over training and funding. The Iraqi Perspectives Project that examined some of the translated documents captured post-war shows that Islamic Egyptian Jihad, Zawahiri's group, was in Iraq pre-war; 2/3rds of IEJ became the al Qaeda leadership.

If anything, the CIA downplayed the extent of Saddam ties to al Qaeda. And there most definitely were ties there.

 

DA BUFFALO AMONGST WOLVES

3:31 AM ET

July 2, 2009

Greed

Greed lost Iraq... and will cause continuing losses every time the US hopes to get a good deal on whatever resources Iraq has to offer.

That means the American lifeblood... from driving to work to growing our food... Petroleum.

As a Jew, I can say that if you 'screw me' in a business deal, not only will you never get a good deal from me again, but my children... their children... their children's children AND my extended family (taken tribally, whether modern or in the traditional sense) will continue to 'screw you right back atcha' for the rest of your born days.

Muslims are about the same culturally.

IOW, just invading their countries (Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan etc) on false pretenses, destroying their country, society, and culture (a US military base on the site of Babylon? C'mon!), has caused the US and the West, no matter WHO happened to have authorized it, to be at fault, and bear the brunt of their cultural anger.... direct or indirect. Conscious or sub...

WE elected our leaders who pursued those policies, and we are ALL going to be held accountable socio-economically. every time we fill the SUV up, for 'the rest of our born days.'

The American people 'lost' Iraq. We allowed our leaders to 'shoot our energy economy in the foot' so to speak.

Further, the only people who don't seem to 'get it', are the American public. Be it rationalization, denial, or a perverse sense of 'exceptionalism, we ARE, as a society, clueless.

Incoming! National Security Archive Papers - Saddam Hussein Talks to the FBI: Twenty Interviews and Five Conversations in 2004 http://trunc.it/od4u

 

BILL KELLER

12:59 PM ET

July 2, 2009

Work of protected species...

Read the Hannah shill just now.

It is a work of pandering to those who will lose blood, heirs and treasury by one who can only inherit a secure posterity at no risk.

Madoff extracted less and was more ethical.

 

TYRTAIOS

1:06 PM ET

July 2, 2009

Victory means achieving stated goals

A young Naval officer reminds us elsewhere on Slate what
Clausewitz stated: "military victory is meaningless unless it can achieve its intended political objectives, otherwise it's just a waste of life, equipment and money."

What have we accomplished? We've prosecuted OIF on a credit card with interest piling-up daily; tied down our forces for longer than ever anticipated for which their refitting and resetting cost hasn't even been addressed yet; expended our diplomatic energy in the region at the expense of our other critical interests and seen other regional players take over the traditional role of mediating that was once the domain of the U.S.

Finally, we've created a vacuum for Iran to step into, thereby changing the dynamic for them to become a regional player, and watched as the House of Saud has decided America can no longer be depended upon to guarantee the security on the Arabian Peninsula (or is that the Persian Gulf?).

It is quite probable we would have had to address the Saddam regime militarily at some point. The key is knowing when is the right time to do so. Or as the T'ai Kung stated in the "Six Secret Teachings: "One who excels at warfare will await events in the situation without making any movement."

"When he sees he can be victorious, he will arise; if he sees he cannot be victorious, he will desist."

Victory - absolutely not.

 

GARYC

2:00 PM ET

July 2, 2009

3463

It was those three thousand, four hundred and sixty three servicemen (as of 29 June) who lost Iraq. They should have tried harder. They not only lost Iraq, they lost....everything. Since no one is mentioning them I thought I might place some blame.After all, they did volunteer. Do not blame our wise elected representatives, they only sent them over there.

 

TYRTAIOS

3:55 PM ET

July 2, 2009

Exactly! ,

Exactly! And in addition, your sarcasm should extend to all back home in America that continued to shop at the mall instead of doing due diligence and asking deeper questions on what we were getting them into, and holding those elected officials responsible.

Funny, not one person was, or has been fired as a result of any intelligence failure post 9/11, or for poor performance in generalship during OIF. And let me add: where were our watch dog journalists?

Those deceased men and women you rightfully mention had a term for it: "it sucks!"

 

BILLSLAYER

6:23 PM ET

July 2, 2009

Win/Lose/Win

We won the state to state battle quickly and fairly easily, then we lost control to Insurgents, Jihadis, and Iranian Proxies. Then we fought them back and re-took Iraq. So I'd say we won it, lost it,, then won it back. Was it a good idea in the first place? No, but in the defense of Bush and Company I'll say this--the guy who comes to the table with a plan will get that plan put into motion if the other guy (the dems) show up to the table with no plan. When the archeologists dig this up they'll either laugh or cry. And if you think this is over...

 

RAMSIS

9:12 PM ET

July 2, 2009

who threw the curve ball

In defense of Bush (although that goes against my better judgement) I believe as the F.B.I reported today that the W.M.D curveball was thrown by Saddam, Bush along with 70% of the American public were the ones who swung wildly at that pitch.

 

HARDRADA

9:16 PM ET

July 2, 2009

Public opinion

To the earlier poster who suggested US public opinion was split before the invasion... according to Pew Research in March of 2003, 71% of Americans thought invading Iraq was the correct decision, 22% thought it was the wrong decision. That's pretty overwhelming.
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/431/trends-in-public-opinion-about-the-war-in-iraq-2003-2007

Political capital is such a fickle mistress.

 

WALKING WOUNDED

3:38 AM ET

July 3, 2009

search and avoid

The FP blog is not showing comments just now, so maybe somebody already put this up. Anything to it?

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KG02Ak05.html
Marching out of step in the US military
By Dahr Jamail
Jul 2, 2009

 

CHARLIEFORD

4:25 PM ET

July 4, 2009

When specifically was that poll?

Hardrada says,

"according to Pew Research in March of 2003, 71% of Americans thought invading Iraq was the correct decision, 22% thought it was the wrong decision. That's pretty overwhelming."

But March is when we invaded, and not the best time for assessing where the people's heads are at (which is, as always at the beginning of a war, delirious with war-fever). I'd like to see some comparison with February, January, December.

 

MOTOWN67

5:55 PM ET

July 4, 2009

Don your numbers are off

That poll and the Lancet study are both nuts. Do the math, how many Iraqis would have to have died each month for 1 mil to be dead? What happened to all those bodies? During the height of the sectarian war the warring sides WANTED people to see the dead to intimidate them and cleanse neighborhoods. For that survey to be correct around 90% of the dead were never reported. Plus the Lancet study has been discredited. The author refused to turn over and answer some basic questions about his study. Most reliable estimates believe that about 100,000 have died.
http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2009/05/iraqi-casualty-reports-in-april-2009.html

Your numbers on Iraqi refugees are also incorrect. Iraq has about 2 million refugees and around 2.6 million internally displaced. The number of refugees is under dispute and could be less. This was caused because you added up the numbers of refugees each year. That's incorrect. The 2.4 mil in 2007 for example was how many there were total since 2003. Most estimates think about 5% of Iraq's displaced and refugees have returned so far.

 

MOTOWN67

7:47 PM ET

July 5, 2009

LANCET has been disproven

You can quote all that stuff all you want, but the Lancet study has been discredit. In early 2009 the American Association for Public Opinion Research asked the author of the Lancet study some basic questions about his work. He only gave partial responses and refused to answer others. He got censured for that and for violating basic research methods.

And again, where are all the bodies? 1 million divided by 6 years = 166,666 dead per year. 13,888 per month. Iraqi families constantly go to the morgues looking for their family members. Why haven't they been reported? Especially now with violence subsiding the families should have the opportunity to find their dead. If 1 million died only 10% of the dead were reported. You really believe that? There's 900,000 dead bodies laying around somewhere, just no one's found them.

 

SLAVOSOD

1:16 AM ET

July 9, 2009

"Yes, that's common when both

"Yes, that's common when both parties are legitimate researchers."

Exactly. It's not common when one of the parties are fraudulent researchers who are trying to keep everything secret to hide their fraud.

 

Thomas E. Ricks covered the U.S. military for the Washington Post from 2000 through 2008.

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