Wise words on Iran

Mon, 06/22/2009 - 5:48pm

If you are as weary as I am of knee-jerk nonsense from pundits and pols who would rather tear down their president than really aid the Iranian people, then you might enjoy this commentary by Karim Sadjadpour. And unlike many in Washington, he actually knows what he is talking about. An expert on the Iranian opposition, he offers these wise words of advice:

This is extremely delicate and the situation is so dynamic. We clearly have to be on the right side of history here, but I think if we try to insert ourselves into the momentous internal Iranian drama that's unfolding we may unwittingly undermine those whom we're trying to strengthen. Historically that's often been the case in Iran.   

It goes without saying that the Obama administration should clearly not acknowledge the results of these contested elections. This would demoralize people. We should also be pushing all of our allies not to acknowledge the results of these elections until justice prevails in Tehran. I was disappointed that Turkey's Abdullah Gul and Afghanistan's Hamid Karzai did not hesitate to congratulate Ahmadinejad. 

But again, I think if we overtly take sides the regime could well react with a massive and bloody crackdown on the demonstrators using the pretext that they are acting against an American-led coup."

(HT to old Steve Coll)

Of course, if the crackdown does grow bloody, then the United States government can step up the rhetoric-but then it will be doing so alongside its allies, instead of having other countries wary of joining us. But for the moment, as my friend (and counterinsurgency expert) Terry Daly observes, the question for President Obama is, "Does he have the intestinal fortitude to continue to do the difficult right thing and keep hands off the events in Iran, or will he fold under intense domestic pressure and loudly support Moussavi and the demonstrators?"

Meanwhile, this analysis points out that in two provinces, the recorded turnout exceeded 100 percent! Also check out this nice essay by proven provider Robin Wright about the role of Ayatollah Montazeri, who has issued a fatwah dismissing the election results.

CORRECTION: The other day this blog referred to right-wingers recklessly calling Obama weak for his careful handling of the Iranian crisis as "clowns." In fact, they should have been called "dangerous clowns." Best Defense regrets the error.

Thomas E. Ricks | Permalink | | Comments? Login or register
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proposed language for Foggy Bottom

by Walking Wounded on Mon, 06/22/2009 - 6:28pm

"The United States government applauds Supreme Leader Kahmeini's call for a detailed examination of recent election irregularities. The world awaits with interest the results of the recount and investigations that have been promised. Iran is an important and proud country. It's future course in the family of nations should be guided by free and fair election of leaders who are representative of all its people."

Let the pundits here and there figure out and explain what part of that they disagree and find fault with.

Perhaps we could prevail on friends in Lebanon to introduce a UN resolution endorsing the principle of restraints against foreign power interference in local elections. I'm OK with our meddling in Georgia (or Australia) to be drawn into the talk. World democracy is a long view kind of project.

It is striking that

by MDrew on Mon, 06/22/2009 - 9:30pm

almost no one is looking to Foggy Bottom for operative language here (including, it appears, Obama himself). This despite that it would seem this is precisely the type of situation that is the reason you put someone with the stature of Hillary Clinton at DOS in the first place. Incredible shrinking former-First Lady/Senator?

"The other day this blog

by datroy on Mon, 06/22/2009 - 8:50pm

"The other day this blog referred to right-wingers recklessly calling Obama weak for his careful handling of the Iranian crisis as "clowns." In fact, they should have been called "dangerous clowns." Best Defense regrets the error."

Oh come off of it Tom. You're a better writer than this. It's pretty easy to win an argument when you're starting position is an assumption of bad faith from the other side, isn't it? The neocons supported Clinton's decision to support democracy in Bosnia and Kosovo, Bush's decision in Afghanistan and Iraq. Did you ever think that they actually believe in the power of democracy, and want to see the protesters succeed? And that they're criticizing Obama because he's ignoring the protesters calls for help? You're entire commentary here of Iran consists of 1 post with a specious conclusion, based on nonexistent analysis, that Iran suddenly equals Budapest? (Why not E. Europe 1989? Why not Ukraine? No one was certain the Russians wouldn't back a crackdown - they did poison the opposition candidate) and suddenly it's obvious that the President's approach is "careful" and you assume the right to run interference for the President's position with nothing more than name calling?

And let's just pretend the previous, obsequious post fawning over Obama's claim that he appreciates all the great Urdu poets just didn't happen. Someone should ask him to name even one.

By the way - your previous post comparing Iran and Hungary accepts the admin's talking point - based on a lazy reading of history - that we "shouldn't interfere" b/c of US interference in 1953. Then you go on to express hope that George Soros IS "meddling." So, America - no meddling, it'll cause blowback. Billionaire American citizen who essentially bankrolled the current President of the United States and destroys the economies of entire countries on a whim - meddle away!!!

Yet its Krauthammer's column that is nonsense?

"Oh come off of it Tom. You're a better writer than this."

by MDrew on Mon, 06/22/2009 - 9:40pm

If he's as good as you say he is (and he is -- both as a writer and a thinker), and it's clear he's not coming off his position much (fairly clear I'd say), then perhaps you should consider coming off yours a bit.

I'm not a beltway policy

by Da Buffalo Amon... on Mon, 06/22/2009 - 8:50pm

I'm not a beltway policy pundit or any sort of expert on this at all but the first words out of my fingers when word of discontent with the election results were first starting to spread around were: "Bloggers can comment all they like on this, but anyone directly affiliated with US policy making or in advisory capacity... OR the MSM, should just "shhhhhhh". for now and stay the heck out of the way until the 'smoke' clears."

Keep in mind the one of the most dangerous thing that police officers have to do is single-handedly break up a domestic disturbance (...around here, they show up en force) because the person you're trying to assist may turn on you the second you take their spouse down to cuff him/her.

Iran IS that 'domestic disturbance' for the US and West and they should proceed with extreme caution.

There's no doubt

by Don Bacon on Mon, 06/22/2009 - 11:32pm

There's no doubt that the well-funded CIA is behind, or at least supporting, the 'Green Revolution" in Iran, the one "threat" to the US, just as it did the earlier one in the fifties against Mossadegh. That earlier one only took $1 million; up to $400 million has been budgeted for this one against Iran.

Obama: ""So let me be clear: Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile activity poses a real threat, not just to the United States, but to Iran's neighbors and our allies . . .I've been very clear that I don't take any options off the table with respect to Iran."

WaPo, June 30, 2008: "The Bush administration told Congress last year of a secret plan to dramatically expand covert operations inside Iran as part of a long-running effort to destabilize the country's ruling regime, according to a report published yesterday. The plan allowed up to $400 million in covert spending for activities ranging from spying on Iran's nuclear program to supporting rebel groups opposed to the country's ruling clerics, veteran investigative journalist Seymour Hersh reported in the New Yorker magazine."

Don Bacon, Obama just

by datroy on Tue, 06/23/2009 - 12:42am

Don Bacon, Obama just recently zeroed out all of those democracy-promotion programs.

Let's be clear though - the NDI, NED and IRI are not conspirators with the CIA. They are made up of lots of idealistic people who genuinely want to build democracy in other countries. That's where the funding was going, until recently.

corrections

by Don Bacon on Tue, 06/23/2009 - 10:47am

datroy,
I didn't mention democracy promotion, but destabilization through revolution.

The US is in a low-intensity virtual war with (I believe) the only country officially designated, by the US President, as a "real threat" to the United States. Thus we see a continuing fleet off Iran's shores, economic sanctions, terrorism within Iran by a US-sponsored Pakistan-based group and currently this "green revolution."

I'm merely stating the obvious. One would have to be extremely naive to think that the CIA was not involved in these latest events, just as it has been in other color revolutions, Pinochet in Chile, Castro in Cuba, Chavez in Venezuela, Aristide in Haiti and also earlier in Iran.

Regarding democracy promotion, here's Obama in 2008: "I will significantly increase funding for the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) and other nongovernmental organizations to support civic activists in repressive societies."--March 2, 2008

Of course, as in other matters, Obama mis-spoke (or lied, to us common folk). From the 2010 State Department budget: National Endowment for Democracy--2009-$115m, 2010-$100m, a $15m decrease, but till substantial, no? Hardly "zeroed out."
http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/123546.pdf

hands on

by Don Bacon on Tue, 06/23/2009 - 10:59am

In other words, this is, as Tom would say, "crap":

the question for President Obama is, "Does he have the intestinal fortitude to continue to do the difficult right thing and keep hands off the events in Iran. . ."

"Hands off" Iran is not a US option and never has been.

Crazy to me people would try and predict Iran

by Eric C on Tue, 06/23/2009 - 12:48pm

...when Iran is about the definition of American intervention gone awry. All attempts to make the Iran crisis into black and white, good vs. evil seem shallow compared to good reporting and analysis. Thanks for the links Tom.

-Eric C www.onviolence.com

Winning Friends and Influencing People

by GaryC on Tue, 06/23/2009 - 1:29pm

Nations, governments, religions and groups, and the elite all through history have sought to influence, stabilize, destabilize, control, destroy, occupy, colonize, etc. other nations. The people in the "other" nations, governments, religions and groups are sometimes, though rarely, innocent of their own conquer the world agenda . The game is played by force of arms and or psychological manipulation, bribery subversion, etc. 99% of all people who have ever lived on this planet just want to do their part in a society, raise food, raise children to replace themselves, and continue civilization. They are brainwashed by the 1% of the human race who are predatory manipulators; led into paranoid greed and competition instead of tit-for-tat cooperation. That's how it is and everyone just takes it for granted that is how it has to be- like highway death tolls. I disagree. Leave them all alone and make it clear America will leave everyone alone. Expose the truth instead of repeating lies. This will not create a perfect world but as long as we have nuclear weapons we can rely on them as the final "leave us alone" persuader while we leave them alone. I like the "massive raid doctrine" where if something really bad is happening, we go in and make it impossible for it to keep on happening- and then leave. Not occupy and get our money back from oil wells or other restitution. This was kind of what we did in Gulf War l but the bad thing happening was called Saddam Hussien so in my opinion the raid was a failure. Gulf war 2 was also a failed raid in my own personal opinion because while we got rid of the Hussien gang we tried to get our money back and stuck around. This is my simplistic view of the world and in this view we should not be pouring millions of dollars into black programs designed to topple unfriendly governments. Leave them alone and pour some millions into becoming self-sufficient so we do not have to worry about middle east oil. Everyone may be tired of hearing it but it really is all about the oil. The Japanese brought an unwilling America into WW2 over oil (which might have been a good thing in the long run by keeping the Nazi's from from turning everyone on earth without blonde hair and blue eyes into soap). My point is we should try something different and perhaps it might catch on.