Posted By Thomas E. Ricks Share

If there were any doubt about where Defense Secretary Gates stands on the concept of hybrid warfare, he cleared it up yesterday in his comments at a press conference:

So the notion that we are not taking seriously the range of potential future conflicts, I think, frankly is just a misunderstanding of what we're trying to do. It derives from my view that the old way, of looking at irregular warfare as being one kind of conflict and conventional warfare as a discreet kind of warfare, is an outdated concept. And my belief, that conflict in the future will slide up and down a scale, both in scope or scale and in lethality. And we have to procure the kinds of things that give us -- the kinds of equipment and weapons that give us the maximum flexibility, across the widest range of that spectrum of conflict."

This may need to be tattooed on the foreheads of some generals. Word is that some of the people doing the QDR just don't get it. I suspect Gates will get out the tattoo gun if necessary. I think he is giving pretty clear marching orders for the future shape of the force. And it doesn't include adding more F-22s. 

Vahid Rahmanian/Flickr  

 
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PARKERDHICKS

7:14 PM ET

June 19, 2009

Interesting

I have had COIN theory drilled into me from all sides over the last four years, and I find interesting the changes in terminology and organization that it has undergone. When my teachers first started our courses, we were taught that the great folly of many "conventional" officers was to look at irregular warfare as a "lesser included" of the sort of maneuver warfare they were accustomed too. IW--and COIN specifically--was supposed to be something different, requiring a different order of battle and a different operational plan.

Now we're back to a "sliding scale" of conflict, where the different situations are understood to melt into each other. I know this isn't the same as the old lesser-included idea and recognizes the different approaches necessary, but the language's evolution interests me.

 

JJH722

5:00 AM ET

June 20, 2009

Gates really sounds determined to stay for now

Based on the last blog post you made, maybe Gates and Reed would wait until after all of these big Senate battles Obama has teed up for the Fall to take new positions. That way, Gates could use his cachet as "bi-partisan" figure in these fights in Congress over things like the F-22's. He seems pretty determined for now.

 

PFE1223

12:59 PM ET

June 20, 2009

Addressing Gentile's Concerns

Doesn't this statement address the concerns of Gentile? I mean, he feels that the Army runs the risk of handicapping itself by eschewing all forms of combat other than COIN. Gates, however, is stating that an effective military must be able to positively respond to a wide variety of combat situations. COIN is but a part of the spectrum and perhaps it will take a more prominent position in said spectrum, but Gates speaks of a spectrum of combat not a spectrum of COIN. Gentile raises concern over the dogmatic statements of Mansoor, Kagan, and Nagl at the end of his article, but shouldn't the aforementioned quote by Gates carry more weight?

 

IF

3:50 AM ET

June 22, 2009

Affirmative

Yes, Secretary Gates' comment should carry more weight than quotes that LtCol Gentile usually uses out of context to buttress his alarmist arguments. Secretary Gates understands that DoD has to be prepared to respond to contingencies across the spectum of conflict. He also understands that DoD can temporarily focus on certain areas of that spectrum to address contingencies while remaining prepared to respond to other areas of the spectrum. LtCol Gentile's reactionary opining gives the impression that it's a zero-sum game. E.g., focusing on counterinsurgency requires DoD to stop preparing for high-intensity, large force-on-force conflict. (Enough about LtCol Gentile. I'll save my other points for when he's the blog's focus.)

 

GARYC

9:53 PM ET

June 20, 2009

The ultimate Weapon

Several hundred billion dollars in solar power plants in the southwest is the ultimate weapon of the 21st century. After killing a certain number of people in another country the general rule of thumb is they do not and will not be in love with your country anymore. Recall all our forces from all over the world. Cut-off foreign aid. Stop using oil and become self-sufficient. America does not need the rest of the world- the rest of the world needs us to show them how to be citizens of an educated representative democracy that redistributes wealth while rewarding achievement in the fairest measures possible. Presently we are the gluttonous lying idiots of the planet and the rest of the human race knows it and is imitating us as best they can. Our military has become a massive money making enterprise that corrupts political processes and impoverishes the public. A few hundred square miles of Nevada can power this country completely- it's true, it is not a fantasy, we only need to build a couple million mirrors instead of a couple million.... whatever. To cheap to meter need not be an absurd atomic swindle. We can grow food without genetically modifying it, dousing it in pesticide and fertilizer, and hauling it by truck a thousand miles. We can all have our cars but instead of gridlock we would take them out on the empty freeways for vacations- and have no need of them for anything else. We can have a society that is not based on psychologically manipulating human beings into buying more and more junk and junk food. We can do it and also have the ultimate military able to kick anyones ass. Our potential future conflicts can be massive raids on anyone who commits obvious evil- if we have no overseas interests we are forced to defend and no distant lands we are forced to occupy. That is why Southwest desert is the most valuable real estate on the planet, not middle east oil fields. Our great resource, the ultimate weapon of the 21st century.

 

JJH722

10:36 PM ET

June 20, 2009

Pie in the sky

I agree with the general sentiment, but its impossible. We should only withdraw from places where we are unneeded. And we are needed in many places. We are hated by many, but we also provide other countries with stability. Sowing chaos in the world is what inspires hatred. America has no interest in chaos, either, despite our FIASCO (what an appropriate title, Tom). I agree with the sentiment that we should stop meddling, but we need to make sure that a solid international order is in place that can ensure our interests before we totally withdraw from our "policing" role. For instance, what happens to Japan if we pack up and leave? Withdrawal resulting in instability will make it more difficult to pursue our interests through multilateral and bilateral agreements, further restricting our ability to stand down from our "superpower" obligations. I don't think any reasonable person wants to see the aftermath of the collapse of the American Empire. Also, I'm not sure its that easy to kick the oil habit, but I could be wrong. We'll be in the Middle East for a long time to come. There are so many Chinese and Indian people waiting in line to get a car, the rising price of energy will end up breaking our habit before any of that Congressional legislation makes a dent.

 

GARYC

12:45 AM ET

June 21, 2009

The Impossible Dream

I will try to answer pie in the sky point by point and keep it short;

1. The "General Sentiment" is to fix what is wrong. If that is impossible....

2. We should leave, we should stay, we are hated, we are needed, Sowing chaos makes hate- we are not interested in that, we should stop meddling, we should keep order. Perhaps we should try something different.

3. If any country on earth can take care of itself, Japan can.

4. "Withdrawal resulting in instability will make it more difficult to pursue our interests through multilateral and bilateral agreements, further restricting our ability to stand down from our "superpower" obligations." Translation: We should not try something different.

5. I don't think any reasonable persons wants America to be an empire.

6. "We'll be in the Middle East a long time to come." You could be wrong if those thousands of abandoned American factories start making mirrors.

7. It is not about Chinese and Indians standing in line or the price of a barrel of oil or a ton of coal or congressional lobbying by industry; it is about the opposite of all that.

 

JJH722

2:24 AM ET

June 21, 2009

rebuttal

America IS an empire, bud. The question is how we wind it down as our resources relative to the rest of the world's dwindle. Most empires haven't collapsed prettily. And while America is much different from previous empires, it is an empire nonetheless. I don't want an empire either, but if we withdraw support for the regimes we've supported forever, we're screwed. Look at Egypt. I'm pretty sure that Chinese and Indian demand will drive up energy prices. The energy we get will be more expensive and dirtier. Congress isn't going to get far in front of the changes brought on by price, if they do at all. Look how long they've avoided a gas tax. To point 1, empires collapsing is not "fixing what is wrong". I agree that we need to scale back, but take it easy. USSR's collapse and rampant militant nationalism = bad, despite the positive aspects of it in Central Europe. To point 2, we should try something different, like a realistic approach that blends values and interests. To point 3, Japan certainly can defend itself, but China and Japan pointing nuclear weapons at each other would just create another regional hotspot. And what about Taiwan/South Korea? To point number 4 "something different": I said we should slowly withdraw from obligations that are too onerous in the long term. But withdrawing immediately from most places wouldn't be conducive to our interests. Regarding the southwest, I hope we spend as much as possible bolstering domestic resources. But a panacea is not around the corner no matter what we do. That's where we disagree.

 

GARYC

9:39 PM ET

June 21, 2009

I rebut your rebut, but...

That's where we disagree? No, I would say we disagree on just about everything. America IS NOT an empire..."bud." Your central question has me baffled. "Our resources relative to the rest of the world"; I don't understand what that means and I doubt anyone not on your particular narrow wavelength does either. We are screwed if we withdraw our support from regimes we have supported forever? Hmmm, forever is a long time. No panacea no matter what we do? Your tone is defeatist, the same defeatism that caused all of your empires to collapse. Nobody has us by the balls except the people pulling the puppet strings on our supposed public servants. The only realistic approach is to expose the lies and vote the liars out of office- if that does not work it comes down to rioting in the streets as we are seeing in Iran right now.

 

JJH722

2:36 AM ET

June 22, 2009

well, that really cleared

Wow. You could turn that into a picturebook and show people how to make the world perfect.

 

GARYC

4:51 AM ET

June 22, 2009

Very Clear

Wow. You hurt me feelings.

 

BILL KELLER

12:43 AM ET

June 23, 2009

Organizational change begins with a broad change of top ...

pyramid place holders. Half the general officers to retirement, performance measurement of capital investments, more aggressive plant (base and fort) closure, a march out of military from Washington centralization, eliminate all SES...the list would grow. Our national security complex is similar to our health care in terms of high cost for marginal returns.

("to" was added between "..officers" and "retirement" in the original post. GOs retirement pay is too little for the service. Suggest we have too many of such types when we can afford to use them as aides, spokesman, acting directors - things that are better done by a Lt. Commander or Major.}

 

Thomas E. Ricks covered the U.S. military for the Washington Post from 2000 through 2008.

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