Keane: War is over

Posted By Thomas E. Ricks Thursday, June 11, 2009 - 7:14 PM Share

Retired Army Gen. Jack Keane, the godfather of the surge, struck me as heapum optimistic about Iraq. "There will not be a systemic rise in violence," he predicted. "The security situation is manageable."

Keane, a straight shooter, also said that Saudi Arabia has been "absolutely outrageous" in undercutting Iraqi economic development. He didn't offer details.

Other panel members basically agreed. "I believe that the cycle of sectarian violence has been broken," said John Nagl of CNAS and Eating Soup with a Knife. And Nazar Janabi, a former Iraqi military officer and civilian defense official, said that, "Some level of optimism is totally called for."

Samir Sumaida'ie, the Iraqi ambassador to the United States, gave an eloquent talk in which he took hope from his view that the Americans of 2009 are not the same as the clumsy Americans who invaded his country in 2003. "America has changed ... through experience," he said. "They made some very expensive mistakes, some horrible mistakes." But since those bad old days, he added, "They have learned a lot."

photosbymavis/flickr

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SKIPPY-SAN

9:12 PM ET

June 11, 2009

That's great-why can't we go home then?

Seems to me there is a mixed message here. If the cycle of violence has been broken then we should be able to pull out US troops tomorrow and just let the Iraqis have it and rise or fall on their own.

Why then do policy makers and military leaders keep scheming to find ways to avoid the SOFA required pullout?

BILL KELLER

10:06 PM ET

June 11, 2009

What is the justification for continuing?

In the preceding session, Dr. Andrew J. Bacevich asked for justification before continuing current and future activities at war in central Asia. He is asking for the integrity of the action's justification. He finds none - a very courageous conclusion from a man who has given his posterity to maintain the ongoing war. I find myself in agreement with Dr. Bacevich. We need to reopen the justification.

ADAGIO

10:09 PM ET

June 11, 2009

Color me skeptical

Keane, Nagl and an Iraqi official... Pardon me if I'm a little less than convinced to hear this coming from them. But then we've been hearing predictions that it was just about over for so long, I won't really believe it until we see it happen.

MOTOWN67

12:54 AM ET

June 12, 2009

Iraq is grey

Iraq is very grey. There are still about 400 people killed a month there. That is a fraction of what it use to be. Attacks are down as well. Both dropped as the provincial elections neared in Jan. 09, but have started to creep back up.

The sectarian war is over. The Sunnis have accepted defeat, the Mahdi Army has largely been demobilized. When Shiite pilgrims get attacked, and it happens every single time they have a pilgrimage, there is no response from the Shiites.

A lot of groups are now trying politics instead of violence.

That being said, Odierno said he believes there will be violence in Iraq for the next 5-15 years. The Kurdistan-Baghdad dispute could bring down the government or worse, lead to fighting and the break-up of the country.

Iraq is evolving, but you can never tell which way it's going to turn. I haven't even mentioned the fact that the government hardly works, that there is high unemployment for the young, that only about 5% of Iraq's displaced have returned, etc.

STARBUCK

11:10 AM ET

June 12, 2009

I'd say the cycle of

I'd say the cycle of Sunni-Shia violence has been (largely) broken, but the Arab-Kurd relationship might still be a ticking time bomb in my opinion.

I concur with the poster above--with high unemployment and oil prices at an all time low, this may have a drastic effect on Iraq's ability to employ police and military personnel (some predictions are that over 100,000 will be laid off) and hamper the ability to employ the SOI as part of the security plan.

I won't say all is doom and gloom, and the situation is admittedly far better than it was four years ago, but I would be guarded about claiming that the war is over.

JASON SIGGER

12:37 PM ET

June 12, 2009

Too late

They're just copying Stephen Colbert's victory declaration - too late to be original. On a serious note, I agree with the comments here - if the circumstances have changed, it would be nice to see a rationalization for a new strategy that keeps US troops in theater (if one can be developed). I think the reason why you haven't seen more bold statements by current/former administration officials (to include Casey) is only because they don't want to put the administration in a position. Of course, if the current administration would take any position on Iraq and Afghanistan other than the status quo, that would be an improvement.

BLUE13326

4:55 PM ET

June 12, 2009

Well, I did argue this point

Well, I did argue this point here a few months back. You tend to argue from anecdote to back up your political bias, which anyone who's taken a basic logic class knows is logically invalid. I simply quoted the figures to you and pointed out you were wrong. No need for a mea culpa.

With oil prices skyrocketing and Obama's lack of a realistic energy plan guaranteed to spike the price of oil to an all-time high in the near future, I'd say the economic situation will sort itself out.

I'd worry more about Detroit or Chicago than Baghdad.