Thursday, May 21, 2009 - 4:33 PM

The news this morning that three U.S. soldiers and 12 Iraqis were killed by a roadside bomb in Doura hit especially hard because at CNAS lately I have been writing an introduction to a paper of how security was improved in that south Baghdad neighborhood in 2007-2008. It is an inspiring study of how to bring safety to a beleaguered civilian population, which makes it all the more disheartening to see those improvements erode.
John Moore/Getty Images
RIP.
It is clear that General Petraeus’s surge was successful because of bribery ‘to insurgents by putting them on the US payroll‘. There is a clear lesson to famous General now in Afghanistan - putting so-called moderate Taliban on US payroll will buy their loyalty only as long as bribery continues. And same principle applies to Obama’s bribery to Zardari government. Muslims in all three countries remain ‘moderate’ as long as they are bribed. Loyalty ends on the day payroll ends. Can US afford to keep them on payroll, say for next 20 years? If NOT, loyalty is just a mirage created to milk Uncle Sam.
It is clear that General Petraeus’s surge was successful because of bribery ‘to insurgents by putting them on the payroll‘. There is a clear lesson to famous General now in Afghanistan - putting so-called moderate Taliban on US payroll will buy their loyalty only as long as bribery continues. And same principle applies to Obama’s bribery to Zardari government. Muslims in all three countries remain ‘moderate’ as long as they are bribed. Loyalty ends on the day payroll ends. Can US afford to keep them on payroll, say for next 20 years? If NOT, loyalty is just a mirage created to milk Uncle Sam.
How is sustainment addressed...
Tom, I just wonder what will cause the surge to hold - on the owner's of the land foundation.
I hope everyone read the story.
You can't stop evil men from blackmailing a family or victimizing a weak minded person, if the bads are determined. But you can keep plugging the leaks, make it a lot harder to move the bomb, to target high value men and friendlies.
Bomb sniffing dogs are an available technology, to keep explosives from moving thru the multiple checkpoints in this case. Iraqis have plenty of labor and routinely use dogs for rural security. Dogs can't be turned into snipers or IED's, and bless their willing souls, they're replaceable in dog years, not human lifetimes.
A retail war being fueled with pilferred arms needs real time WalMart and Disneyworld mgt techniques, not puzzle palace 'tiger team' studies.
Once we knew the occupation was a cluster fuck, every car and truck should have been assigned foot-high bar codes, readable from roof-tops and helos, and auto-logged in and out of trouble spots like Doura. Cars can be passively tracked (smart-pass) in real time, and occasionally correlated with drivers, with unblinking 'fuzzy logic' machines sifting for anomalous patterns and stolen bomb platforms. When the worst happens, you do like London and sift back in time for clues and patterns. We do this now, but without the necessary vehicle data depth.
This nasty stuff is going to be happening for a very long time, unless a hundred small fixes gnaw it down at the bottom end, while good police work against the network clips it at the sources and borders. The techniques pioneered in London and Baghdad can keep it from happening in Cairo, Caracas, Jakarta, Peshawar.
There have to be a lot of counterterror ideas that were never pursued, because we were always 6-18 months from disengagement. We could have paid locals to cut the roadside reeds back, instead of letting the enemy pay locals to ambush us from those hides, and then send our guys in to beat the brush. Talk about your 'slow walk' command fatalism.
We've spent hundreds of billions on F-22 and SPAWAR, when the war is in the slums, our guys patrolling to contact with command mines, enemy supplies moving by car and truck. We've been running the project like an temporary oil-patch construction camp, do an 'Iraq service year', and hope never to go back. Not laying the security foundation for a 15 year reconstruction project.
It's a pity to see Americans using their intelligence to try an neutralise a weapon being developed along Israel's perimeter in order to avenge this countrys behaviour towards the indigineous population of Palestine.
Think of this: If the problem of Israel had been adressed in - say 1965, there wouldn't have been any Iraq war, or an afghanistan waqr for that matter, because 9/11 wouldn't have happened.
You GOT to understand that Israel is thrilled after 9/11 to have you on their side helping with counterstrategies, against what is essentially poor people resisting occupation.
Mr. car bomb is no ones friend
Wiki has an interesting article on the history of car bombs and their variants. 3,641 car bombs are attributed to the Lebanese civil wars. Given the direct losses we took in Beruit, it shouldn't have taken hindsight to see them as the likely heavy weapon in a battle for Baghdad, Ramadi, or Mosul.
The Stern Gang and others made mass-casualty car bombs famous during the Palestine mandate wars. One tragic effect was that embittered British veterans began retaliating, working with Arabs to car-bomb the zionists. (I'm no fan of unrestricted bombardment of occupied buildings by the US or Israel, nor am I blind to the connection, or to who is using the most explosives today, by orders of magnitude.)
If two car bombs went off in a US city, tolerance for unregistered cars and endemic car theft would drop to zero the same month. How is protecting US citizens who are on some level (for now) policing and protecting Baghdad less worthy of a basic auto regulatory initiative? Instead of taking responsibility for cars flooding thru the border we blew open, we locked down the Green Zone and airport, and nurtured successive Rumsfeldian fantasies of a quick turnover.
In fact, a read of veteran accounts will provide a lot of anecdotes that US troops stole and abandoned a lot of cars to supplement their broken hmv's. We participated in the chaos, like Tiajuana cops in the middle of a drug war. Reporters who escaped kidnap teams never talk about identifying the perps ride, for enforcement. It became accepted as part of mad-max streetlife in Baghdad.
The Iraqis who will soon be stabilizing Baghdad and protecting the population will require a defense in depth against all forms of bombs and mortars, and the people who view collateral killing as god's work. A working ride is a force multiplier, for police, medics or Taliban. Arab populations have much to fear from intramural resort to terror, and more to gain than the Israelis from effective security measures. As we hope for civil improvements in the lives of Cairo and Alexandria children, remember Beruit, as well as Gaza.
MEMORIAL DAY: RICKS STILL SAYS ABOLISH ACADEMIES, WAR COLLEGES
Tom Ricks wrote in the Washington Post to abolish all Academies and War Colleges but still has not told which if any of the Academies or War Colleges he has actually visited so that readers and listeners would know if Ricks had any valid knowledge of what he is talking about. That is, Ricks popped-off with "Lets kill Annapolis et al" with no personal knowledge of the life, culture, ethos of each of the Academies.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/16/AR2009041603483.html
The article by Tom Ricks in this case is irresponsible and sloppy and Ricks owes cadets, midshipmen, families, NOK, grads, prospects and his readers an apology for his weak journalism. His topic, Accountability and Transparency, is excellent -- Grads more or as much as any others urge Accountability and Transparency of their Academies -- and War Colleges -- and I have written so; but his actual article is so failed as to warrant some decent apology especially for injury to those who cannot hit back: families and NOK and the dead and prospects for academies affected by the sloppy article.
By way of introduction, my West Point class is 1966. I chaired construction of the Vietnam Veterans Memorial in DC and worked with vets for decades building the Korean War Veterans Memorial, the Women's statue at the Wall, the Women in Military Service Memorial in DC and Memorials in many states. Right now I work to help the project for the WW II Women Pilots (WASPs) be awarded a Congressional Gold Medal, as were the Tuskegee Airmen. That legislation has just passed the Senate. For President Reagan I planned and directed the Vietnam Veterans Leadership Program in 47 states. Some of the programs continue to this day, on their own funding. The VVLP mission is to link vets up with each other to find jobs and to break the false stereotype of vets as folks to feel sorry for, to pity, to treat as victims; instead to recognize vets as Strong Warfighters and Strong Citizens. Many VVLP guys and gals now work this mission for Iraq and Afghanistan vets.
Here is why Tom Ricks owes an apology. First, he seems not even to know that USCGA and USMMA exist. But his piece would abolish them. What an insult to USCGA and USMMA -- to say abolish them and not mention them. Second, Ricks does not say where on the web his cost data can be obtained and examined. Third, he in fact has not visited all the Academies and War Colleges he would shut, in a way to learn their ethos and culture and effectiveness of teaching, but by his tone of (false) knowledge, readers would think he has some close knowledge of the schools; West Point reports that Ricks has visited briefly, but not to learn anything at West Point of depth about the life and values of cadets and West Point and of West Point grads.
Fourth, Ricks omits mention that Washington and Jefferson long ago had sharp discussions about the need for West Point, and Washington strongly wanted the Academy. Jefferson opposed until right after he became President and saw the light, so to speak. He set up West Point (and so all Academies) (except USCGA) to draw youngsters from all walks of life -- the very poor especially -- proportionately from all over America through Congressional appointment. The Academies Reflect America thanks to Jefferson's Genius and Washington's Leadership.
Ricks seems not to know that the founders were clear on the need for a National Military Academy and he does not re-examine their arguments. USCGA brings in applicants by examination only, not by appointment from Congress proportionally nationwide. USCGA still succeeds in reflecting all of America and in fact has a slightly higher proportion of women admitted than the other four academies.
Fifth, Ricks does a thing that shows complete unfamiliarity with the heartbeat and life of the Academies: he tries to separate the Graduates from their Academies by saying the Grads are "crackerjack" but the schools are "community colleges" -- meant to mean, "second or third rate." So he insults Community Colleges too :) Most Academy grads strive to embody the values of their Academy in their lives. Ricks, unaware of this, shows a kind of insulting ignorance.
Sixth, Ricks in his article holds up ROTC as a paradigm without noting that no O-10 in active service has faced Peer War -- WW II kind of like war -- meaning that in 2009 the military does not know if ROTC programs steel grads adequately for Peer War. Meanwhile, Academies are proved in steeling grads for Peer War. He does not address the known un-evenness and disparities and inadequacies reported on many ROTC programs nationwide. He shows ignorance of his subject matter, in short. He goes on to say that Academy grads are too expensive therefore, but with no foundation of fact and analysis. Some or many or all ROTC programs may in fact be significantly underfunded.
Seventh, Ricks in his piece uses some alleged hearsay about some commanders who prefer non-West Pointers, he says. That is fine -- West Point is not perfect and not nearly perfect :) But anecdotal hearsay proves nothing. An editor of merit would have deleted, and pressed for real substantiation.
Eighth, Ricks omits to say that more than any other Americans, many Academy grads believe that their Academies have to earn their keep anew in each generation. I have written this myself. It is a reason that I participated in and supported the work of author Rick Atkinson in his writing the book, "The Long Gray Line" about West Point and the class of 1966. I told Rick, "We owe an accounting, to say to Americans, this is what you gave to us, and this is our Report." The book shows my own foibles, blunders and errors :) The point is, Accountabilty and Transparency :)
Ninth, Ricks omits mention of women and the gateway that the Academies provide to women for contributing to the defense and life of our Country. In 2005 the 10,000th woman graduated from the Five Federal Academies (I did the research); America is now on the way to 15,000 women grads of the Academies. This is a powerful and culturally and militarily important cohort. Ricks seems oblivious to this aspect, the aspect of bringing women so quickly and fully into mainstream Military and (as vets) Community Leadership. This exhibits again the genius of Washington and Jefferson. They made this possible.
Tenth, the piece Ricks wrote is so journalistically irresponsible that it unforgivably wounded folks who Can't Fight Back. That is, he rattled the morale and feelings of parents of prospective cadets and midshipmen and the prospects themselves, and many cadets and midshipmen, and widows and NOK of Academy grads killed in battle, and he insulted the brave dead from Academies. Hal Moore USMA 1945 of "We Were Soldiers" is an overpriced product of a third-rate college? Some would disagree. His steel in saving his battalion is seen by many as Proof of West Point's Value as Founded by Presidents Washington and Jefferson. Paul W. "Buddy" Bucha USMA 1965 is an overpriced grad of a third rate school? Congress and the President probably thought otherwise in citing Buddy for the Medal of Honor for saving the 89 men in his surrounded and cut-off Company in the 101st Abn. My dad John Wheeler USMA Jan 1943 at Normandy and the Ardennes and the Bridge at Remagen and the Liberation of the Nordhausen Death Camps was the overpriced grad of a third rate school? Ricks can go to Arlington and speak that at my Dad's grave :)
Eleventh, Ricks rabbit-punches Dave Petraeus USMA 1974. He insults him. He calls Dave's school third rate but says Dave somehow got into Princeton for graduate school. Dave had been kind and gracious to Ricks. Ricks is rather insulting to the Commanding General who trusts him. He does owe an apology for that. Ricks ignores that Dave himself by his life and work strives to embody West Point.
Twelfth, Ricks clings to an unmanly quality of Never Own up to an Error. There are better men and women at the Washington Post than that. Dave Broder, for example. Ann Scott Tyson, for example. Henry Allen, for example. Don Graham, for example. Ricks instead has done the unmanly thing of hiding behind a few editors at the Post who hew to the "Never Apologize, Never Explain" doctrine that infects some Journalists. The ombudsman of the Post says he only does news, not opinion pieces. Ricks' editor at the Outlook Section has never explained why he let the journalistically weak piece get published in a Fine Newspaper. The Editorial Page editor still does not "get" the flaws of the Ricks writing. The topic -- Accountability for the Academies -- is superb and timely. The actual article is journalistically unprofessional and failed.
Ricks instead drifts along at stall-speed, so to speak, in denial -- unattractive in anyone but especially a journalist and author. Instead Ricks this week points out that the West Point class of 1976 with Raymond Odierno, Dave Rodriguez, and Stanley McChrystal had the travail of an Honor scandal -- a periodic event at USMA; but without mention that at West Point Honor is Real and the human condition means that humans fall short. The point is, West Point stands for and hews faithfully to Honor. And to Accountabilty and Transparency.
The Washington Post and Tom Ricks want the Military and the Academies to be Transparent and Accountable. But in this egregious case of awful journalism the Washington Post and Tom Ricks do not hold themselves to anything close to that Noble Standard.
The Editorial Page Editor and Outlook Editor of the Post and Ricks can Man-Up and apologize, at least to the young and innocent and good folks they wounded.
John Wheeler
USMA 66
wheelerusa@usa.net
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