Kayani: Oh yeah, we can do COIN

Posted By Thomas E. Ricks Share

Pakistani army chief Kayani insists that his outfit can do that counterinsurgency thing just fine, contrary to what many foreign observers have asserted. “Any outside advice or subjective comments towards this end are counterproductive and divisive in effect, rather than being helpful,” he remarked.  

In my experience, the more someone insists they can do counterinsurgency, the less likely that is to be the case. It kind of reminds me of what my old Washington Post colleague Anthony Shadid, a longtime vet of Iraq and the Middle East (and shot in the back once in the line of duty) said to me one day in Baghdad: “You know, the more I know about Iraq, the less I understand it.” The beginning of wisdom is a lot of humility, in COIN as in many other endeavors. 

General Kayani’s mindset is not a good indicator of trends in Pakistan. The first step toward recovery is recognizing you have a problem.

JEWEL SAMAD/AFP/Getty Images

 
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BILL KELLER

4:48 PM ET

May 18, 2009

Could it be that being forthright....

has no advantage, no upside in this particular situation. Former President and Head General of Pakistan was stating on CNN GPS yesterday that Pakistan's problems in the SWAT Valley and borders are of Afghany origin. US solves its problems with the Taliban in Afghanistan and cuts the arms flow into Pakistan then peace and stability will return.

Forthright?

 

J THOMAS

4:56 PM ET

May 18, 2009

So, whose COIN advice should

So, whose COIN advice should Kayani take? Ours? How is our COIN track record?

 

WALKING WOUNDED

6:06 PM ET

May 19, 2009

the COIN hydra

“You know, the more I know about Iraq, the less I understand it.” (shadid) The beginning of wisdom is a lot of humility, in COIN as in many other endeavors.(ricks)

The "dominant narrative' is that we figured out Iraq in 2006-8, and therefore know how to get pilots and platoons of pfc's, noncoms and shavetail LT's to protect the families of their enemies, to eat the thin Af-Pak gruel of rebellion with a knife. Or is it that Taliban are terrorists, and killing is safer than interrogation, more certain than buying allies?

The bright spot is that our narrative places big faith in men like Petraeus and Kilcullen, who I never hear claiming to have 'fixed' Iraq. They do talk about factors that will make things worser faster. Kilcullen tells us any tactical program (building schools, or mining infiltration donkeypaths) will be countered and neutralized by a dynamic and diffuse rebellion. Aything we put in there, someone else can steal or destroy, and vice versa.

Does Team McChrystal possess the humility and patience to keep attending meetings and drinking tea? Or are we heading into more drama and conflict, secret bombs and bullets, without the public 'shock and awe' bragadocio.

30 years of war in Pashtunistan is like a train off the tracks on a down-grade curve. It just keeps coming, and you can't even hope to jump clear.

Comparing to the VN war, I'd say we're in the 1969-72 phase, when we were COIN wise and negotiating, when most of the 'secret' aerial bombing and indecisive cross-border ops took place. By 2010 midterms, Washington will be able to say that we went with the aggressive generals, local troops, spec. ops, held the course. When presidential campaigning begins, a secret peace plan will be just around the corner, so don't change horses just yet.

 

DON BACON

7:21 PM ET

May 18, 2009

Just imagine:

Of the 1.3 million displaced Pashtuns, leaving their homes and pets for predation by the Pak army, the Pashtun people for which the revenge gene is dominant, just imagine how many of these offended people now include prospective insurgents recruited by this Pakistani offensive. Let's say that only one percent will become hardcore fighters -- 13,000. That's conservative. A better figure might be 50,000. What do the COIN experts say, I wonder?

Apparently Kayani learned this from Operation Iraqi Fiasco.

 

CHARLESF

8:48 AM ET

May 19, 2009

My take

I think plenty of countries could learn from the United States' painful lessons of the past few years.

For instance, while our own Bundeswehr is good at nation-building missions, force protection seems to be paramount as well as a wider reluctance to take risks.

Unfortunately the Afghan mission is deeply unpopular in Germany and hence the political leadership is unwilling to take the risks involved in more forceful COIN operations. And I dare say our military is also wedded to the 90s vision of "riskless warfare".

So my guess is that not only Pakistan can benefit from US COIN know-how since they're no longer the pretty inept force of 2003 (in COIN/nation-building terms) we non-Americans rightly criticised.

 

JMHX

2:09 PM ET

May 19, 2009

COIN is one part of the

COIN is one part of the larger plan for dealing with counterinsurgency in Asia. Pakistan's troubles are going to ripple out from the center of Asia to the sea, and if it isn't dealt with, no region will be safe. Asia Chronicle has a whole special on it over at www.asiachroniclenews.com

 

J THOMAS

8:39 PM ET

May 19, 2009

The Domino Theory reborn!

The Domino Theory reborn!

 

KENNETH SORENSEN

2:47 PM ET

May 19, 2009

Please take a look at the

Please take a look at the first attempt in the World to record and pinpoint All Violence in Pakistan between 2006 and 2009.

It shows -- among other things -- an alarmingly high rate of suicidal bombs. This weapon -- sometimes described as the poor man's missile came to Aghanistan in 2005 for the first time ever. It was first introduced on a grand scale in Lebanon and the West Bank, by Palestinians angry of having been thrown out of their ancestral land.

So you see that Israels actions has repercussions pretty much all over the world, and the Jewish colony's right to govern its own affairs [without being put under administration by the World Community] in fact is and continues to be the Worlds greatest security Peril and destabilising factor.

 

KXB

5:04 PM ET

May 20, 2009

Look next door

India has extensive COIN experience. While Kashmir may grab overseas headlines, India has had to deal with domestic insurgencies ranging from Sikhs, Maoists, Nagas, and Bodos. In each case, the government uses a two-pronged approach. A paramilitary approach, eschewing inaccurate air power, intensive (often slow) intelligence gathering, combined with a political approach to approachable elements within the disgruntled group. India's central government has been quite flexible when it comes to redrawing internal borders to satisfy quarelling groups. But it is adamant in not redrawing its external borders.

 

JOHN WHEELER

1:20 PM ET

May 25, 2009

TOM RICKS ON MEMORIAL DAY: KILL ACADEMIES, WAR COLLEGES

Tom Ricks wrote in the Washington Post to abolish all Academies and War Colleges but still has not told which if any of the Academies or War Colleges he has actually visited so that readers and listeners would know if Ricks had any valid knowledge of what he is talking about. That is, Ricks popped-off with "Lets kill Annapolis et al" with no personal knowledge of the life, culture, ethos of each of the Academies.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/16/AR2009041603483.html

The article by Tom Ricks in this case is irresponsible and sloppy and Ricks owes cadets, midshipmen, families, NOK, grads, prospects and his readers an apology for his weak journalism. His topic, Accountability and Transparency, is excellent -- Grads more or as much as any others urge Accountability and Transparency of their Academies -- and War Colleges -- and I have written so; but his actual article is so failed as to warrant some decent apology especially for injury to those who cannot hit back: families and NOK and the dead and prospects for academies affected by the sloppy article.

By way of introduction, my West Point class is 1966. I chaired construction of the Vietnam Veterans Memorial in DC and worked with vets for decades building the Korean War Veterans Memorial, the Women's statue at the Wall, the Women in Military Service Memorial in DC and Memorials in many states. Right now I work to help the project for the WW II Women Pilots (WASPs) be awarded a Congressional Gold Medal, as were the Tuskegee Airmen. That legislation has just passed the Senate. For President Reagan I planned and directed the Vietnam Veterans Leadership Program in 47 states. Some of the programs continue to this day, on their own funding. The VVLP mission is to link vets up with each other to find jobs and to break the false stereotype of vets as folks to feel sorry for, to pity, to treat as victims; instead to recognize vets as Strong Warfighters and Strong Citizens. Many VVLP guys and gals now work this mission for Iraq and Afghanistan vets.

Here is why Tom Ricks owes an apology. First, he seems not even to know that USCGA and USMMA exist. But his piece would abolish them. What an insult to USCGA and USMMA -- to say abolish them and not mention them. Second, Ricks does not say where on the web his cost data can be obtained and examined. Third, he in fact has not visited all the Academies and War Colleges he would shut, in a way to learn their ethos and culture and effectiveness of teaching, but by his tone of (false) knowledge, readers would think he has some close knowledge of the schools; West Point reports that Ricks has visited briefly, but not to learn anything at West Point of depth about the life and values of cadets and West Point and of West Point grads.

Fourth, Ricks omits mention that Washington and Jefferson long ago had sharp discussions about the need for West Point, and Washington strongly wanted the Academy. Jefferson opposed until right after he became President and saw the light, so to speak. He set up West Point (and so all Academies) (except USCGA) to draw youngsters from all walks of life -- the very poor especially -- proportionately from all over America through Congressional appointment. The Academies Reflect America thanks to Jefferson's Genius and Washington's Leadership.

Ricks seems not to know that the founders were clear on the need for a National Military Academy and he does not re-examine their arguments. USCGA brings in applicants by examination only, not by appointment from Congress proportionally nationwide. USCGA still succeeds in reflecting all of America and in fact has a slightly higher proportion of women admitted than the other four academies.

Fifth, Ricks does a thing that shows complete unfamiliarity with the heartbeat and life of the Academies: he tries to separate the Graduates from their Academies by saying the Grads are "crackerjack" but the schools are "community colleges" -- meant to mean, "second or third rate." So he insults Community Colleges too :) Most Academy grads strive to embody the values of their Academy in their lives. Ricks, unaware of this, shows a kind of insulting ignorance.

Sixth, Ricks in his article holds up ROTC as a paradigm without noting that no O-10 in active service has faced Peer War -- WW II kind of like war -- meaning that in 2009 the military does not know if ROTC programs steel grads adequately for Peer War. Meanwhile, Academies are proved in steeling grads for Peer War. He does not address the known un-evenness and disparities and inadequacies reported on many ROTC programs nationwide. He shows ignorance of his subject matter, in short. He goes on to say that Academy grads are too expensive therefore, but with no foundation of fact and analysis. Some or many or all ROTC programs may in fact be significantly underfunded.

Seventh, Ricks in his piece uses some alleged hearsay about some commanders who prefer non-West Pointers, he says. That is fine -- West Point is not perfect and not nearly perfect :) But anecdotal hearsay proves nothing. An editor of merit would have deleted, and pressed for real substantiation.

Eighth, Ricks omits to say that more than any other Americans, many Academy grads believe that their Academies have to earn their keep anew in each generation. I have written this myself. It is a reason that I participated in and supported the work of author Rick Atkinson in his writing the book, "The Long Gray Line" about West Point and the class of 1966. I told Rick, "We owe an accounting, to say to Americans, this is what you gave to us, and this is our Report." The book shows my own foibles, blunders and errors :) The point is, Accountabilty and Transparency :)

Ninth, Ricks omits mention of women and the gateway that the Academies provide to women for contributing to the defense and life of our Country. In 2005 the 10,000th woman graduated from the Five Federal Academies (I did the research); America is now on the way to 15,000 women grads of the Academies. This is a powerful and culturally and militarily important cohort. Ricks seems oblivious to this aspect, the aspect of bringing women so quickly and fully into mainstream Military and (as vets) Community Leadership. This exhibits again the genius of Washington and Jefferson. They made this possible.

Tenth, the piece Ricks wrote is so journalistically irresponsible that it unforgivably wounded folks who Can't Fight Back. That is, he rattled the morale and feelings of parents of prospective cadets and midshipmen and the prospects themselves, and many cadets and midshipmen, and widows and NOK of Academy grads killed in battle, and he insulted the brave dead from Academies. Hal Moore USMA 1945 of "We Were Soldiers" is an overpriced product of a third-rate college? Some would disagree. His steel in saving his battalion is seen by many as Proof of West Point's Value as Founded by Presidents Washington and Jefferson. Paul W. "Buddy" Bucha USMA 1965 is an overpriced grad of a third rate school? Congress and the President probably thought otherwise in citing Buddy for the Medal of Honor for saving the 89 men in his surrounded and cut-off Company in the 101st Abn. My dad John Wheeler USMA Jan 1943 at Normandy and the Ardennes and the Bridge at Remagen and the Liberation of the Nordhausen Death Camps was the overpriced grad of a third rate school? Ricks can go to Arlington and speak that at my Dad's grave :)

Eleventh, Ricks rabbit-punches Dave Petraeus USMA 1974. He insults him. He calls Dave's school third rate but says Dave somehow got into Princeton for graduate school. Dave had been kind and gracious to Ricks. Ricks is rather insulting to the Commanding General who trusts him. He does owe an apology for that. Ricks ignores that Dave himself by his life and work strives to embody West Point.

Twelfth, Ricks clings to an unmanly quality of Never Own up to an Error. There are better men and women at the Washington Post than that. Dave Broder, for example. Ann Scott Tyson, for example. Henry Allen, for example. Don Graham, for example. Ricks instead has done the unmanly thing of hiding behind a few editors at the Post who hew to the "Never Apologize, Never Explain" doctrine that infects some Journalists. The ombudsman of the Post says he only does news, not opinion pieces. Ricks' editor at the Outlook Section has never explained why he let the journalistically weak piece get published in a Fine Newspaper. The Editorial Page editor still does not "get" the flaws of the Ricks writing. The topic -- Accountability for the Academies -- is superb and timely. The actual article is journalistically unprofessional and failed.

Ricks instead drifts along at stall-speed, so to speak, in denial -- unattractive in anyone but especially a journalist and author. Instead Ricks this week points out that the West Point class of 1976 with Raymond Odierno, Dave Rodriguez, and Stanley McChrystal had the travail of an Honor scandal -- a periodic event at USMA; but without mention that at West Point Honor is Real and the human condition means that humans fall short. The point is, West Point stands for and hews faithfully to Honor. And to Accountabilty and Transparency.

The Washington Post and Tom Ricks want the Military and the Academies to be Transparent and Accountable. But in this egregious case of awful journalism the Washington Post and Tom Ricks do not hold themselves to anything close to that Noble Standard.

The Editorial Page Editor and Outlook Editor of the Post and Ricks can Man-Up and apologize, at least to the young and innocent and good folks they wounded.

John Wheeler
USMA 66
wheelerusa@usa.net

 

Thomas E. Ricks covered the U.S. military for the Washington Post from 2000 through 2008.

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January/February 2010