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On the defenestration of Gen. McKiernan in Afghanistan
Mon, 05/11/2009 - 5:10pm
I've got one thought here: This reminds me of how Gen. Casey got fired as the commander in Iraq. I think Petraeus and Gates are behind this, and the message is: Bigger changes are coming in the war than you think.
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What Is the New Strategy?
I heard on the radio on the way home from work that this change was part of a new strategy in Afghanistan. Does anyone know what the new strategy in Afghanistan is because I sure haven't seen anyone articulate it yet.
Large troop increases
were repeatedly requested by McKiernan's command. Those were denied by NATO, resisted by OIF and delayed by CENTCOM. A 4-star dismissal might indicate that we won't 'Go Big', and maybe we are going to Stay Big in Iraq. Except that most of the troops that OEF was allowed to ask for are already in the pipeline, a hefty 50% bump in US deployment.
McKiernan inherited an 'economy of force' mission, which means
1. His 2-year command tour wasn't going to be the one that 'wins'.
2. OEF would have to increase use of bombs and artillery on villages to slow enemy advances, was unable to invest troops to secure friendly gains.
3. WH/DoD/CENTCOM accepted responsibility for an 'Iraq First' strategy, and the risk that Af-Pak things were going to get worse in the near term, as they have .
IF a 4-star is forced to resign because things in his theater went the way they were expected to go, and our bombs were killing civilians and alienating allies without 'winning', that would tell us more about WH/Gates/Petraeus than McKiernan. Gen. Case got a softer landing, but that was an election year.
There are other possibilities, such as DoD/CENTCOM going back on promises to OEF, after realizing that we are still 1-200K troops short of what we need to do both wars. Or that some serious error(s) went down out there at Bagram, to be announced.
"Bigger changes are coming in
"Bigger changes are coming in the war than you think."
Assuming 'bigger' MEANS 'bigger' it would do well to remember what happened in the streets of the the US after Nixon was elected and said he was going to end the war, but didn't... It got 'bigger' too, with a coordinated campaign of 'Carpet' Bombing the North while invading the surrounding countries.
All holy hell broke loose.... and that's in a time when endless war WAS NOT draining the US treasury dry and there weren't large masses of unemployed or underemployed young people (Who BTW would most likely NOT flock down to the local recruiter for a dirty war in AfPakistan.)
I dare Obama to say the word "Draft".
Double dare!
Unless these guys are simpletons enough to think they can win a war with special operators and UAVs but never put masses of troops on the ground to SECURE the gains their soldiers are dying for, that's going to be the next step.
Vocabulary
I've seen you use the word "defenestration" twice recently. It wasn't in the context of GEN Casey the first time.
and
what ever happened to "threw him under the bus"?
Resignations should not be used like this
When a General is asked to resign instead of being fired extortion is being used by the firing agent. It would be better if the General was removed or rotated out.
Resignations are for when the General voluntary removes him or herself because there is a belief that the policy is wrong, the acts are criminal or when it is believed that the General is by his or her own estimate miscast.
Resignations to stop rendition, unconstitutional actions, torture and other practices would indicate that backbone existed within the bodies that fill out expensive uniforms in the case of the Navy or Marine Corps or Air Force or faded pajamas and ugg boots in the case of the Army with the exception of General Petraeus who hasn't forgotten how to dress properly.
Resignations at the direction of someone else indicates pliability or a desire to be cast in the next performance of "Darkness at Noon" should Cheney return to power.
Casey
In defense of Casey, he was serving under Donald Rumsfeld, 2 1/2 years in Iraq, when the game plan was to not go big but to turn things over to the Iraqis, to "take the training wheels off", to quote a Rummyism. Samarra ruined that, and I have my suspicions about that. God, I hope it wasn't McChrystal.
The new strategy? For McChrystal to ape Casey? I don't think so. They want to go big. My eyes are on Balochistan, and that means moving into an area with a large China interest.
To get the bodies, Obama will go to compulsory service, your choice, civil or military.
Casey v. McKiernan
GEN Casey got promoted, the Post quotes Sec. Gates as saying that this 'probably' means GEN McKiernan's career is over.
Yup
Casey not only got promoted, but became Chief of Staff. Not bad for a failure.
from DOD:
McKiernan took command of the NATO-led mission in Afghanistan in the summer of 2008. He will remain in command of both U.S. and NATO forces until McChrystal is officially nominated and confirmed by Congress. Gates said McKiernan is likely to retire after nearly 37 years of service following his official resignation.
Two Probabilities
Two probabilities: 1). McKiernan was not doing a stellar job, not delivering the goods and so goes for that — McChrystal is a member of the current inner circle and so gets the nod; 2). the main-force vs COIN debate is settled, the straight-leg main-force guy out, a snake-eater in.
The musings about going big, involving still more countries, starting the draft, and somehow turning this into another Iraq-like hunt for the Middle East's Holy Grail are a bit overwrought. There is NO military strategy that can solve Afghanistan/Pakistan. Augment a solution, yes, and here the snake-eaters have the better story. But war is still an extension of politics by other means: absent an overarching political strategy, victory (however defined) will remain MIA.
What is surprising...
is that after nearly 8 years of combat only one high ranking officer (division commander and above) has been fired for the failure of his command to achieve military objectives. If you look at the combat relief rates in WWII, this War on Terror number is ridiculously low. Combat command is probably the most difficult of human endeavors. Not every general officer is going to excel. Our problem to date has been an institutional lack of fortitude to remove failing leaders, probably for fear that this would reflect badly on the politics of the effort and/or the heroic work of the soldiers in the command. Casey's 'firing' reflects this very problem. Secretary Gates has shown an admirable ability to get past those roadblocks and focus on success.
Korea history of firings was
Korea history of firings was even more like the Gong Show.
Damn West Pointers
Obviously Casey and McKiernan were much better than "community college-educated" people like Petraeus, Odierno, McChrystal, Rodriguez.... ok I'll stop now
DWP
more on this today!
Hooray!
Hooray!
A turn for the better
I'm surprised that no one has brought up the fact that this change removes a Cold War era armor officer in favor of an officer who is intimately familiar with asymetric warfare and interagency coordination.
Yes!
True. Though despite being a panzer commander - General McKiernan did great work with Surge - even disagreeing with General Franks about Feyadeen.
Also - nothing is ever truly disconnected at this level of command - Pak Army's recent 'awakening' to actually act like a real army and take on Taliban - and the intell that super villan Ayman al-Zawahiri is hanging out near Quetta may mean the Af Pak strategy will be nom d'guerr'd the Pak - Af strategy.
And General McChrystal is just the cat to do it to it.
Whoopee! A new flag!
Ah, a new general. The key to success! It's like going to the movies and hoping for a good usher. Our Middle East mess was created by political failure, Barbara Bush's little Georgie its poster boy. It gets un-messed in the political sphere and all the refinement of military leadership will be for naught absent complementary advances in the diplomatic sphere.
That said, the demise of an armor guy adds fuel to the notion that the traditional Army of record (think Tommy Franks) has been strategically bankrupt since the beginning of the Cold War, multiplying its sins by institutionally stifling special forces at every available opportunity. Watching trees grow in the Fulda Gap is no substitute for learning the craft on the enemy's terms ... and neither Iraq nor Afghanistan-to-date can be seen as Army successes. We have not gotten our money's worth and a lot of kids have died because of poor generalship in the Middle East. The best of luck to McChrystal and Rodriguez.
McChrystal's secret army, secret wars
JSOC's activities have stayed pretty well under wraps, even as SpecOps budgets and billets keep multiplying.
McChrystal was outted by Pres. Bush after Zarqawi was hit. His team took some damage, with convictions for prisoner abuses. Woodward has written about the importance of the JSOC campaign in parallel with Petraeus' surge. Fallon took a fall before he could get a handle on JSOC ops in his area of operations. Someone's been conducting sabotage ops in Iran.
If Petraeus is reaching back and pulling JSOC-style kinetic war into the forefront in Afghanistan, does that kind of support Woodward's take on what was working, or at least deemed transferrable to the Af-Pak mess?
Kabul certainly lacks the infrastructure to fabricate and place blast walls down the length of every valley road. It won't be that kind of 'surge'.