NoKo watch: the big breakdown of 2009?

Posted By Thomas E. Ricks Monday, May 11, 2009 - 6:43 PM Share

The surprise of 2009 may be the collapse of North Korea. I know this has been predicted before, including by me, but smart guys I know are saying it more. "Once we see the loss of military coherency and the ability of the Kim Family Regime to have central governing effectiveness we are likely to see regime collapse," comments an old friend who is an Army officer.

Of course, there's also Cuba. Which ancien regime goes first?

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ROKDROP

11:21 PM ET

May 11, 2009

Signs of A Power Struggle

What some foresee as signs of regime collapse may in fact just be signs of an internal power struggle. With Kim Jong-il appearing to be in his last years and maybe even months due to his stroke there has been plenty of signs of a power struggle between the Workers Party loyalists and the DPRK military.

Kim's brother in law Chang Sung-taek was promoted by Kim to a powerful post in the National Defense Commission. Soon after that discontent from the military was reported and General O Kuk Ryol was eventually promoted to a powerful position in the NDC as well.

Now further reports are coming out that the military has taken over all espionage operations from the Workers Party as well as the overseas money making operations such as their money laundering, counterfeiting, arms dealing, drug smuggling, etc. that brings in much money to the North Korean regime. The possibility of a power grab by the military may also explain why there has been a recent increase in regime officials defecting.

So I think the evidence tends to suggest that the country is just going through a power struggle more then showing signs of a collapse.