If you haven't yet reviewed the papers from the Midwest
Political Science Conference, here's a little gem that will tell you more
about Iraqi politics than a dozen Pentagon PowerPoints. It goes by the
deceptively sleepy title of "Preliminary Results From Voices Of The Mada'in: A Tribal History and Study of
One of Baghdad's Six Rural Districts," and is by Adam Silverman, who was an
advisor to the 2nd Brigade Combat Team of the 1st Armored
Division in Iraq last year, but who emphasizes that his views, opinions, and
conclusions are his, not the brigade's, the division's, the Army's, the
Pentagon's, Joe Torre's, or anyone else's.
His findings:
- Shiite sheikhs, as well as Sunni ones, perceived the
central government as a subsidiary of the Iranian government. "Even by Shia, ... the members of it are viewed as either Iranian agents or Iranians."
- The central government isn't providing services, and
so is disconnected from the tribes. "The lack of tethering ... of
governmental structures to the most powerful socio-cultural dynamic in Iraq,
the tribal system, is worrying." This lack threatens to undo the political
gains of the last couple of years. "The concern is that unless the population
layer, which is tribally oriented, is fully activated and brought into the mix,
the hard work, grounded in the COIN reality of empowering the lowest levels,...will fail."
- The two groups with "broad based indigenous support
in Iraq are the Sawha/SOI who are tribally oriented and the Sadrists." I am not
quite sure what to make of this conclusion, except that certainly isn't where
the U.S. government has placed its bets.
jamesdale10/flickr
Read More
(3)
HIDE COMMENTS LOGIN OR REGISTER REPORT ABUSE