My CNAS hallmate Robert Kaplan has a good piece in
the new issue of Foreign Policy, the mother ship. It is a real feat of
globe-twirling, and I think is especially insightful on the futures of Iran
(ascendant) and Pakistan (not). Among other things, he notes, geography
naturally made Iran a state, and indeed "the ancient world's first
superpower," while
Pakistan is an artificial and probably doomed creation.
He does seem to call, between the lines, for a
reconstitution of the pre-partition area, re-attaching Bangladesh (or whatever
is left of it after global warming) and most of Pakistan. He wants to give the
troublesome Pashtuns their own ungovernable state stretching from the Hindu
Kush down to the western banks of the Tigris.
He also gets off this impressive three-cushion shot:
"when a fear of Munich leads to overreach the result is Vietnam -- or in the
current case, Iraq."
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