Kilcullen speaks

Posted By Thomas E. Ricks Monday, March 23, 2009 - 6:34 PM Share

Yesterday's Washington Post has a terrific interview by Carlos Lozada, the Mario Vargas Lllosa of newspaper editors, with David Kilcullen, the Crocodile Dundee of counterinsurgency.

Most importantly, Kilcullen thinks Pakistan is near collapse:

Pakistan is 173 million people, 100 nuclear weapons, an army bigger than the U.S. Army, and al-Qaeda headquarters sitting right there in the two-thirds of the country that the government doesn't control. The Pakistani military and police and intelligence service don't follow the civilian government; they are essentially a rogue state within a state. We're now reaching the point where within one to six months we could see the collapse of the Pakistani state..."

(In a related story, over the weekend, Pakistani and Indian forces in Kashmir shot at each other -- I think the phrase "exchanged fire" sounds too polite.)

Kilcullen also warns that the Iraq war is far from concluded:

I'd say we have another three to five years of substantial engagement in Iraq."

Kilcullen, a colleague of mine at CNAS, the hottest little think tank in town, has a new book out that should be in the rucksack of everyone heading to Afghanistan. He will be speaking at a CNAS event on April 1st, but please note that registration is required.

Thai Jasmine/Flickr

EXPLORE:AFGHANISTAN, INDIA, IRAQ, PAKISTAN

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ANON

6:50 PM ET

March 23, 2009

On an unrelated note....

Are you going to comment on the news last week of a military appellate court reaffirming command influence in the case of LtCol Chessani? Especially given you begin your recent book with that case and he appears in a previous book of yours.

I also wonder if you think what happened was illegal or rather a case of the ROE not being in line with the type of confict being waged by that time (or any time) in Iraq?

The views of the Article 32 officers have called into question the testimony, I believe, of the witnesses you named in your book, though much remains to be seen.

TOM RICKS

6:58 PM ET

March 23, 2009

Lt. Col Chessani

No, I am going to wait to see how the proceedings shake out.

By the way, Jeff Chessani also was in my first book, "Making the Corps." I have a lot of time for him.

BILL KELLER

8:21 PM ET

March 23, 2009

Hope Dad doesn't pull the credit card....

"I'd say we have another three to five years of substantial engagement in Iraq."

Is this with or without 1) a national security policy that considers our financial stability; 2) Chinese purchasing our debt or 3) approval of the Congress and the President?

Some or all of the above?

ANDY

9:09 PM ET

March 23, 2009

Pakistan - the more things change

Kilcullen's analysis of Pakistan really isn't anything new. That 2/3 of the country he talks about has never been under the "control" of the central government. Those areas are still essentially colonial territories as they were under the British.

And yes, the military and security services are not under civilian control - that has been the case since Pakistan became a state.

That the evidence he cites for Pakistani instability is pretty normal, one wonders on what basis he makes the claim Pakistan is about to collapse?

SAM

10:59 PM ET

March 23, 2009

I know the solution, let's

I know the solution, let's blame, then attack Iran

ZATHRAS

2:06 AM ET

March 24, 2009

Metaphors Well Mixed?

Are we sure about Col. Kilkullen as the Crocodile Dundee of counterinsurgency?

This may sound like a trivial point, but as I recall the Paul Hogan character in the movie was a crocodile poacher, which would make the picture in this post a bit odd, even if it were a picture of a crocodile. And it looks like an American alligator to me.

Anyway, I know enough about Kilkullen to respect his expertise on Iraq and counterinsurgency. How much does he really know about Pakistan?

TOM RICKS

2:47 AM ET

March 24, 2009

Naturalized croc

As I understand it, this crocodile was born in Australia but later moved to the United States.

ROBIN WALKER

3:16 AM ET

March 24, 2009

Pakistan's collapse

The real question is what does he mean by collapse? Another coup? That's certainly possible, perhaps even probable. But military involvement in national politics is seen as something normal in Pakistan. The military is the most stable institution in Pakistan, if not always for good.
A takeover of the government or the country by radical militant Islamists? Not likely, the overtly religious parties have never garnered even double digits in any election.

http://smartinfluence.blogspot.com/

BILL KELLER

10:22 AM ET

March 24, 2009

Any rogue with a title.....

Am I off but it appears that as the Bush Presidency collapsed under challenges from within, our national and international efforts were left to the self anointed centurions in Defense and Treasury. This maybe why we have Generals, their staff and endowed think tankers stating with a certainty normally available to members of the Constitutional government branches what will be the commitments of our blood and treasury, what is legal and what will continue regardless of what those wogs in the electoral may think.

I do think though as this Administration congeals such actions will cease to be so tolerated and the thinkers and tinkers may start to put out more thoughts on what is in our national security debate that entails more than spending more on toys and time on high desert adventures.

HKEIRC

4:55 PM ET

March 24, 2009

Kilcullen Quote

This should be required reading for all. Then for background to read Ghost Wars and Charlies Wilson's War. However, Kilcullen has captured the Pakistan issue in two sentences. The majority of Americans have know idea of the cliff we rest on. A possible failed state with nuclear weapons and a history of proliferation.

SHEHZADSHAH

9:53 AM ET

March 25, 2009

expert knowledge

I would expect 'experts' who comment in FP to have a rudimentary knowledge of the country they so expertly comment on; apparently not in Kilcullen's case. The 'two-thirds of the country' that he refers to, the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), is not even a tenth of the country in area and even less in population. The Pakistan military & intelligence have been omnipotent for much of the country's history, but the army hasn't yet recovered from the hangover after its latest stretch in power, which ended only last year. The new army chief, Kayani, has as yet shown no inclination for dominating the civilian government. In fact, he is the first army chief to give a security briefing to a joint sitting of the elected government and opposition. It is unclear whether or not the civilians can get their act together and not provide another opportunity for the army to step in. However to say that the country will collapse in six months is simply ignorant. An established regime collapses only when a plurality shift their allegiance to alternate authority, or in the case of external conquest. The Taliban have gained strength in some areas, yet it is not even evident that they have the support of the people in those areas, much less a plurality of the nation. On the other hand if conquest from without is on the cards, Kilcullen might just have access to particular information.

TOM RICKS

2:12 PM ET

March 25, 2009

two-thirds

Well, it is clear that he means more than FATA. Perhaps Baluchistan and Swat? And more?

FPCOMMENTS

7:55 PM ET

March 25, 2009

even if so...

Well, perhaps, but even if so, there'd still be a long way to go to two-thirds of the country. And in terms of population, even more so. (Punjab province, in the east, has the highest population. And the folks who pressured the government to reinstate Pakistan's Supreme Court justice would not be inclined to rush into the arms of al Qaeda). It's also not accurate to lump "the police" in with intelligence and military and accuse them of being a rogue state, as Kilcullen does. Look at any recent story about violence in Pakistan and you'll see that the victims almost always include police officers. These guys are poorly equipped, poorly trained and poorly paid--and they're the ones dying and getting maimed in the suicide blasts and other attacks. Not fair and not correct to accuse them of rogue anything, although they have been known for incompetence and corruption.

FPCOMMENTS

4:14 PM ET

March 30, 2009

more attacks on police

Further to my previous comment, today's news of an attack on a Pakistani police academy. Again, incorrect of Kilcullen to accuse the police of being part of "a rogue state within a state":

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/30/AR2009033000098.html?wprss=rss_world