Big-time
strategic thinker Colin Gray serves
up an ambitious article in the
new issue of Parameters,
discussing the 21st century security environment. He begins with
some good common sense about the futility of trying to discern the future. "The
challenge is to cope with uncertainty, not try to diminish it," he cautions. I
like this point because it underscores the necessity of adaptability as a key
principle of building, training, and educating our military leaders. (Hat Tip to
Yingling and Nagl.)
Then, in an
effort to outline the security environment, Gray leaps into a nervy bit of
globe-twirling. These are the three comments that really struck me:
Warfare
is quite likely between China and America over Taiwan, though not about
Taiwan."
Too many
people have become unduly fixated on the challenge posed by terrorism. ...Terrorism does not threaten our civilization, but our over-reaction to it could
do so. ...Compared to interstate
conflict, terrorism-even terrorism armed with weapons of mass destruction-is a
minor menace."
NATO-Russian
relations are an accident waiting to happen."
I have found
Parameters pretty dull in recent years, but it appears to be coming back
to life. Next I'll read, and probably blog, the article by Shawn Brimley on
strategy in an age of transition.
Koichi Kamoshida/Getty Images
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