Posted By Thomas E. Ricks Share

U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) for some damn reason disclosed in a hearing last week that the Predator unmanned aircraft being used by the U.S. government to conduct airstrikes in Pakistan actually are being flown from a base in that country. The Pakistani media raised subcontinental-wide eyebrows over this, noting that Ms. Feinstein is chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee.

Nightwatch's John McCreary sees little good coming of the senator's disclosure:

Unfortunately for the US personnel at the Pakistani base, they have now been identified as targets for the militants. US access to Pakistan also became vastly more fragile today. Moreover, the elected government has been weakened, possibly fatally. For example, if Zardari knew, then he deceived the Prime Minister, the cabinet and the National Assembly. Plus, the militant allegations stick that he is a US stooge. If Zardari did not know, then no one is in control of the government or the foreign military presence and some functionaries apparently believe they are immune from accountability.  Expect demonstrations, as this news sinks in.

Meanwhile, old Pervez Musharraf claims that he is shocked, shocked, to find gambling going on at Rick's. The Pakistan Tribune reports that he told reporters that "there was no tacit agreement or understanding with the U.S. to launch drone attacks inside Pakistan." So maybe it was an explicit agreement? At any rate, please see the croupier to collect your winnings, general.

And the new president, Asif Zardari, tells CBS that "we are aware of the fact [that the Taliban are] trying to take over the state of Pakistan. ... So we're fighting for the survival of Pakistan." But in a concession to those forces, Pakistan reportedly is imposing Islamic sharia law in part of the Northwest Frontier Province.

(Hat tip: FP's Blake Hounshell)

EXPLORE:PAKISTAN
 

KRISH

9:16 PM ET

February 16, 2009

CHAOS

While US has troops stuck in trenches in Wanat, and other "Crevices" in Afghanistan for months without end....it's "number one ally" is getting deeper in bed with it's "number one enemy". Perpetual War = Perpetual Economy.

Also, I don't think Feinstein "slipped". I think it was an engineered "leak". After all, we never heard a peep from her during 8 years of Bush II. the leak HELPS zardari: he's NOT the originator of the Drone problem..he's the inheritor.

The Punjabi elites who run Pakistan military could care less about Taliban. they see them as useful. the US knows this too. it's a "great game".

 

BLUE13326

10:45 PM ET

February 16, 2009

Maybe Obama's urging during

Maybe Obama's urging during the campaign of throwing Musharaff under the bus was a bad idea. Things in Pakistan certainly don't seem to have improved.

 

RPM

11:17 PM ET

February 16, 2009

Good to know that the senator

Good to know that the senator has learned absolutely nothing about discretion in her long career. During a news conference in 1985, the SF mayor Feinstein disclosed information about the serial killer Richard Ramirez that the police had closely protected! As a result, Ramirez (the 'Night Stalker') got rid of the shoes for which the LAPD had recovered treadmark castings.

Diane - you are on a sub committee with access to top secret information during a time of war... keep your trap shut!

 

BILL KELLER

1:16 AM ET

February 17, 2009

Dealing with inside traders

It would be of use to the Republic if the Senate considered treating its members who deal in insider (ie intelligence) information for personal benefit in the same manner as public corporations who find board members doing the same.

Disclaimer: I believe that all requests made by elected officials, appointed members of the executive and general officers for the investment of our blood or treasury should be subject to the same scrutiny and personal liability and accountability as demanded by the SarbanesOxley Act for publicly traded companies. This personal bias for truth and accountability may color my perception of the integrity requirements for those who hold elected or uniform dress offices.

 

MARAUDER DOC

4:22 AM ET

February 17, 2009

Censure or Impeach . . .

I'm sure that the families of any service members killed when the base comes under attack will take great comfort in knowing that Senator Feinstein was only trying to protect their constitutional rights. Certainly she wasn't simply acting casually towards sensitive matters, as she has done in the past.

The Chairperson of the Intelligence Subcommittee should be better. She has failed those of us in the military and she has failed the American people.

 

BILL KELLER

11:18 AM ET

February 17, 2009

Filling a need..

"We desperately need some elected officials who have the legal right and obligation to look at the secrets and reveal them if in their opinion they need to be revealed. We need somebody to take the place of the idiot boy who announces that the King has no clothes, when the King has no clothes."

I agree. Even the likes of John McCain failed to live up...this is why the SarbOx approach is important it requires active verification and integrity. Note how in the current environment Enron likes are not appearing except in industries where it was exempted. It would require release of information that counters Condi opera with piano events or Gonzales certifications. (It must be a real fearsome thing to do to require integrity and honesty as Newt Gingrich is being paid to solicit a SarbOx repeal.)

 

JAMZO

2:36 PM ET

February 17, 2009

feinstein

since sen feinstein is a shrewd and experienced politician and member of senate intelligence committee, more than likely this was a deliberate statement calculated for effect

it would be interesting to know your speculation on that

 

RPM

3:29 PM ET

February 17, 2009

Stunned

I am stunned at the fantasy world in which some of you seem to exist. This is apparently a current classified operation carried out IN COOPERATION with the Pakistani government (which was obvious to those of us who understand irony and/or have seen Casablanca).

The Pak government is in a virtually impossible situation - trying to fight Islamic fundamentalism and terrorism without imploding their shaky democracy - a shaky democracy with nuclear weapons! Quiet cooperation with the Pakistani military and government (who do not have the same agenda... for those of you not paying attention) is critical if we are to keep this critical country afloat and achieve any sort of success in Afghanistan.

Some things need to be secret - particularly ongoing operations carried out in support of legitimate authorized policy. Obama specifically endorsed drone strikes in Pakistan as a candidate and has now authorized them as president. The challenge he faces is getting people in positions of authority to carry out these operations within the law and with appropriate congressional oversight. Feinstein's stupidity will only serve to discourage intelligence agencies from full disclosure for fear of jeopardizing legitimate operations. She is the one who should apologize - quietly to the appropriate people. Either that, or her clearances should be reviewed and downgraded as necessary.

 

SHER MOHAMMAD

3:50 PM ET

February 17, 2009

A senseless American excercise in Pakistan.

The outgoing President Bush has so tarnished American image that it will require most effective measures to renew American presence in the FATA with both goodwill and a package of reconstruction of technical schools and cottage industries to engage the people in productive activities. The immediate measure is to install a powerful Radio station in Peshawar to try to wind the hearts and minds of the affected people and to stop killings of innocent people.

 

HEAVILY ARMED TOURIST

5:49 PM ET

February 17, 2009

What planet are you on?

J. Thomas...how could you think for one moment that the military without any civilian oversight set up a base in Pakistan flying Predators to strike targets? Do you have any clue at all how the Department of Defense works? Who approved funding? Who coordinated with the Pak government for basing rights? These things aren't done in a vacuum. We don't just show up and take over a base in a soveriegn country and no one in State, DoD or the White House doesn't know it. The mission is to kill terrorists who are using Pak as a staging ground to kill innocent people. You may not like the fact that sometimes people die in war and we do things that are unsavory to protect innocent people but curl up safely in your little cocoon tonight knowing that brave men are risking their lives so you can whine on message boards.

 

WALKING WOUNDED

9:33 PM ET

February 17, 2009

Drone Wars and 'secret bases'

At the end of the month or year or war, did rocketing occupied compounds in Pakistan put us closer or farther from our Central Asia war aim, which is by definition a political goal? That's the heart of the drone issue. Not the 'secret base' leak kerfufle.

Did Intel chairwoman Feinstein ask the money question on our behalf; are missile-strike decapitation tactics making progress in a winning Pakistan strategy? And what answer did we get from Blair, the National Intelligence Director ? PM Zadari 'sorting out his cooperation with us' is not an answer.

War wonks cursing at Feinstein's slip might remind themselves that Pres. Reagan's staff goofed and let him go on-air to announce our bombing of Libya, before all our planes had cleared enemy defenses. Look it up.

Shit happens in war; potentially lethal mistakes are made at every level. However neglected it was in the last administration, public demonstration of congressional oversight is a war-duty. Sen. Feinstein is a senior officer of the war-authorizing congress that every military officer swears an oath to serve. The big suck would be if we weren't achieving something worth killing and dying for. That happens too.

Re 'secret Pakistan drone bases', anyone who's lived in a five mile radius of an airport can acquire a pretty good sense of what's coming off the runway. Given strong popular resistance to air attacks on insurgents and their moslem neighbors, plus the ISI's curious history, whatever the locals talk and speculate on will soon get to the insurgent infowariors. IF the launch of these big distinctive drones was not already known to be originating (in some cases) from Pakistan, it soon would have been propaganda fodder, and the contract groundcrews targeted.

Do we really want to be in a position with Zadari where our side is denying, and the bad guys are putting us to the lie?

So far, not much discussion here as to why we would want to risk groundcrews, accept eventual political heat and collatoral to Zadari by launching strike drones from inside IROP. These improved drones can range over most of Pashtunistan from Bagram, and feature incredible loiter-on-station time. My sense is that the IROP side of the mtns is short on high-value-targets, and the drones may often return with unfired missiles on the rails.

More payload, quicker turnaround and more time on station might be a limited rationale. But Gates' 'need more drones' comments, and the Wanat discussion here do highlight a shortage in the Afghan theater. What with Iraq still sucking the air assets out of the room, doing more with less from 'secret bases' could be reason enough. Until the secret's out.

After the 'drone leak', the covert basing operational-beneifit vs political-risk ratio starts looking like millions/billions. That's a poor efficiency bargain, if bringing more birds from Balad to Bagram was an option.

As an alternative to an op-tac rationale, is the legality of our missile fire into buildings cohabited by non-combatants a more powerful motivation for opening a base in Pakistan? Do we want or need the deniability of their officer to order drone killing of Pakistanis from their territory? Maybe an Air Force adjutant or law of war expert can dial in the legal issues for Mr. Ricks readers.

If a missile-UAV was armed and launched under a Pakistani contract, and the bearded bads obliterated under an IROP watch officer, that should break a chain of collateral accountability that leads back to Feinstein, among others. Deniability and avoiding accountability is something both congress and the puzzle palace has had time to think about.

Visualize today's drone offensive over an impoverished mountain region, where midwinter finds flocks and families down where the available housing is in high demand. Often a whole family crowds to a single room or two, along with food stores and seed-stock, tools, maybe even poultry. Feb. is indoor weather, and destruction of any valley shelter risks taking a high toll. "Risks" in the statistical probability sense that casino, Air Force and artillery staffs know a lot about.

Wiki tells me that 40% of Pakistan is under 14 years, and I suspect that rural Pashtunistan is younger than the more urban Punjabis. More than 3/4 of any collatoral kill' won't even be MAM. That's the reality that CENTCOM has to quantify, qualify, and crank into our COIN-drone war calculus. If we're not counting the cost, that's a truth-moment in itself; the folks writing the checks think it doesn't matter.

When we bomb, rocket or shell an enemy occupied village, it inevitably takes on an aspect of collective punishment. 'Shock and awe' means that the surivors are terrorized. That's a featured tertiary weapons effect. When terrorized, we in the US look for some way to hit back. Is that the reaction we seek in Pakistan?

Are we rocketing in Pakistan because we've done the hard-eyed intel work that tells us it's integral to winning? That's the 'leak' I'm hoping for. God help us if this is a war of political expedience, because we have that new drone kind of hammer at hand, and haven't run out of things to hit with it.

 

RPM

8:59 PM ET

February 17, 2009

american flying death robots?

Uhhh... yeah. OK. No need to continue this conversation.

Tom - sorry if this is starting to sound like the WaPo blog.

 

WALKING WOUNDED

7:14 PM ET

February 18, 2009

thinking outside the cave...

http://ricks.foreignpolicy.com/comment/reply/15848/65922

RPM's drift doesn't seem to be in the direction that we shouldn't posess AFDR's. Is he saying we don't yet have them, or simply have no need of them in the Kush at this time?

I'm guessing that our 2020 (2024 according to Ricks' musings) Formosa Straits war plan assumes disruption of our drone's SatCom link from Nellis, leaving them in some sort of autonomous mode. 'Fire and forget' AFDR's will be the preferred sort of weapon in a big boy war. Todays Standards, AMRAAMs, Silkworms. Tomorrows satellites defended by automated laser-pulse canon, and other stuff too fast for human reflexes.

If we have AFDR's now, (we do) and the AQ beards in the caves of the Kush and Karakoram are truly an existential threat to my children's bedroom safety, why hold back on using the good stuff? Why not AFDR the suckers now?

Maybe because we don't know which cave, on which mountain, or even for sure which country to make the kill in. A UAV remote can't ask many questions from 10,000 ft. 'Is this an al Qeada wedding, or the security detail for a cricket match?' Local levels of insurgency/terror threat may be enhanced by even carefully targeted missile attacks in villages. The gross regional destabilizing effects on Zadari and his army are best judged closer to the action than Bahrain or McDill.

Wherever the drones take off and land, One-eyed Omar, Bin Laden and Zawahiri will be dying, or at least rheumatic from altitude, bad water or kidney failure, in another 10 years. Suppose we finally capture and celebrate executing the bastards. What will be their mythic status, what kind of world will we have helped create in the time it takes to find and destroy their followers by fire? Will US cities need a camera on every corner, as in London ? Will that be enough?

Potential terror recruits are already in school, driving cab, acting bit parts or playing in a band, in London or New York, with a local accent. Perhaps evil resides in a Brit or US combat vet. Will we continue to high-simmer these wars, create waves of refugees, accept the translators' families into protective immigration. Then what? Wait for tomorrows DC sniper or Tim McVeigh to leave the party life for the mosque, or slip into meth abuse and commit some heinous crime? Over the long haul, we reap what we sow.

The most motivated soldier I know dropped out of University/ROTC, took a big bonus to enlist as a rifleman, because he couldn't stand the intel officer billet they had him slotted for. Now my young friend knows that waking folks up with a rifle in their face is a poor way to win friends and gather intel. Wanting action is fine for a 21 year old, but can't we greybeards see a serious institutional problem in his story?

Our war in Iraq got screwed up on shitty intel, cultural illiteracy, strategic blindness, poor language skills, more firepower than wisdom. A shortage of marksmen wasn't the determinant in 2004, nor are UAV marksmen likely to be the fix in Pashtunistan.

Asking dumb questions is not a sign of weakness. It's half-cocked plans and quick-kill answers that scare me. Zapping 11 'senior AQ officers' last year sounds great. But what we really need to know is whether benefit minus opportunity cost is in the black, and what the trend line is.

 

SHAKIR

10:26 PM ET

February 18, 2009

Senetor fienestien's guffe or the caliberated leak?

I am sure this is pre planned. Senetor can't be that stupid.
The traitor Zardari and Duffer PM both got what they deserve.
In the first place they should not be the leader of Pakistan. They are both scumbag rascals, plundrers, corrupt, inept Bastards who grabbed the power due to the sympathy vote on the death of Benazir.

This seems one of the measures to put pressure on stupid, scared and intimidated of USA Zardari in the wake of the change of Administration in Washinton. His secret accounts with looted money being frozen or confiscated is the worst of the threat for him. He would drop his pent if had to.

This thing is good for Pakistanis to know exactly who have they chosen as their leader. My be it is blessing in disguise for the Pakistan. We should and can not see this incident in isolation.

 

Thomas E. Ricks covered the U.S. military for the Washington Post from 2000 through 2008.

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