Tuesday, February 10, 2009 - 10:37 PM
The Russians are being all nice about letting the U.S. military ship gear through its territory to Afghanistan.
Next step: This time, try to keep the pilferage rate below 30 percent, OK? (Those of you who followed Afghanistan logistics issues back in the spring of 2002 know what I mean.)
The more I think about it, the more Russia is acting like Pakistan -- a difficult, nuclear-armed Third World country run by small, undemocratic group.
Where is Madame Secretary?
Tom, love your blog. Can you ask the folks at FP when they're going to run madam secretary again?
Is there some parallel in ancient Rome that you might reference here? (You can't overdo the Roman history insights for me on your blog!)
Just acting in its self-interest
It’s easy to see why the Russians would allow the US to ship through its territory. It allows Russia increased leverage in opposing US/NATO interests in the region--e.g., missile defense, NATO expansion, etc. This is just one step closer to Russia reestablishing regional hegemony; and with the recent resurgence of nationalism the population will happily go along.
One has to wonder what the US’s Plan B is when Russia decides to exercise its leverage.
Thucydides was right: fear, honor and interest.
Russia has always been a nuclear-armed third world country. "Upper Volta with missiles" was how Helmut Schmidt described it. Let's just hope that it doesn't turn into North Korea with oil.
Step 1. Sort out problems with Iran (yes, yes...not exactly a day's work, but...)
Step 2. Use the Iranian port of Chabahar
Step 3. Use the road the Indians just completed from Chabahar into Afghanistan as yet another alternate route (with oil revenues down, the Iranians might be willing to guarantee security).
Step 3b. Alternately, use this alternate route as leverage with the Pakistanis who are not happy about this search for an alternate route or the Russians for that matter [start a competition -- i. who can help with security the most, ii. who pilfers the least]
We just better be nice. Or else....
along with pilferage they might "leak" a few (insert russky word for Stinger missile here). Mirror image. Bizarro.
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