There are many potential lessons learned from the deadly battle last summer in the remote Afghan village of Wanat that claimed nine American lives but has yet to be fully investigated and understood by the U.S. military command. One major question I have, based on extensive review of the official record and conversations with multiple sources, is this: Were the U.S. forces correctly mounting a counterinsurgency operation, or not, when they got drawn into the Wanat battle?

American officers had been talking to village elders for months about establishing an outpost in the village of Wanat. But that approach gave the enemy more than ample time to prepare what was effectively a giant ambush. This isn't a thought original to me: The company commander worried about it at the time. "By negotiating with local people about the location and trying to gain support it allowed the locals to plan with the enemy to attack the base," he told the investigating colonel.

The Army maintains that the commanders were observing counterinsurgency doctrine of meeting with local leaders. "Providing legitimacy to and improving partnership with the district government was determined to be a key component of the on-going counterinsurgency fight," it stated in a response to an inquiry from the office of Sen. Daniel Inouye (D-Hawaii).

But others tell me that Army forces in eastern Afghanistan really weren't conducting a full-scale counterinsurgency campaign, which would mean not only meeting with local leaders and establishing outposts, but also finding and arming some local allies, and building roads and other projects, and, above all, protecting the population from being intimidated by the enemy. It would appear that the U.S. military didn't have enough troops and presence in eastern Afghanistan to do that. Rather, they were in a tough fight and conducting a lot of airstrikes. In other words, it was more Fallujah 2004 than Ramadi 2007.

Likely lesson, I think: Counterinsurgency can't be conducted piecemeal. You are either doing the full-court press -- or you are not doing counterinsurgency. Just dropping troops into a hostile neighborhood is not COIN. The company commander seems to have similar thoughts, saying in his statement that he thinks more of a "gradual push" approach should have been used-that is, an "ink blot" strategy. Instead, the battalion commander appears to have tried to leapfrog into the valley.

But my thoughts are tentative, and I'd like to hear from others on this.

U.S. Army Photo

EXPLORE:AFGHANISTAN, WANAT
 
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TINTIN

9:58 PM ET

January 29, 2009

Thoughts

1. I'm curious whether the nature of operations in N2KL has changed a lot since July, particularly recently - the paucity of troops for solid COIN that you mention has been somewhat alleviated by the arrival of 1-32 IN somewhere in Kunar, I believe.

2. I've only been to the peaceful 2008 edition of Ramadi, but having spent a lot of time interviewing guys who fought there during the real battle, I think anyone who served under 1-1 AD or 1-3 ID during the first four months of 2007 would say that that was a "tough fight" - almost as tough as Falluja 2004 or Kunar 2007 - that included a lot of airstrikes.

3. Come on, you should be able to find a better picture than that! That dude isn't even wearing ACUs!

 

WALKING WOUNDED

8:10 PM ET

January 30, 2009

other side of the COIN

This discussion seems to divide into mission and tactics.

Re tactics, the alert posture of our guys raises a question in my mind about what was known or intuited, as they were preparing a predawn patrol. Forward patrolling is doctrine. But imagine what almost happened, with the perimeter weakened and a patrol exposed?

Re mission, if we were not able at that time to deliver a long-term security program, what was it that was being asking of Wanat residents? Are we asking for loyalty to us, in their country. Past loyalty to foreign causes may not have worked out well in that part of the Kush.

I once visited a castle in France that had been torn down by petition from the town residents. For a hundred years, every damn army passing near would detour in and loot the town, whether defending or attacking the fortress. I guess the headmen tired of it.

My guess is the hill folks in Wanat are hoping to stay alive in another impossible situation, between intermittent US firepower, and semi-indiginous forces that seem to be able to come and go at will. The villagers fears and sympathies are as much a target for moslem insurgents as us infidels.

A full strength airborne platoon in defense proved insufficient to deter an overwhelming attack on itself. Instead, the threat of upgrading Wanat to a full time outpost appears to have drawn in two companies of attackers that could have easily wiped out a police/militia force twice the size Wanat could suppport.

The classic insurgent play is to goad the stronger party into larger and more cautious groupings, ceding land, exposing supply, communications,and whatever local allies are outside our zone of control. And to keep us from the years of 'soup with a knife' work it will take (us, NATO, Kabul?) to build relations with locals and factions, exploit enemy mistakes.

Speaking of factions and locals, what was the tribal/cultural picture of the Afghan Army unit vs Wanat? I presume the ANA's and their USMC trainers came in with the airborne? The reason I ask is because Nuristan is very remote, even by Afghan standards. I read that tribes may speak different languages on opposite sides of a mountain pass. Wahabi-sunni beliefs may have taken root. Crusaders bringing a Shite-persian platoon, taking up residence in a Wahabi village might be as welcome as a Kurdish Pesh 'liberators' in a Turkmen city like Talafar.

 

PERCNON

7:10 AM ET

January 30, 2009

Useful autocrats

J Thomas, don't you realise that this king-making was the policy by the US and earlier the Brits for most of the 20th Century?

Both the Taliban and Saddam Hussein were the least bad option at one time and thus received US backing.

So how did that turn out?....

 

NYGDAN

2:39 PM ET

February 5, 2009

Wahabi?

Walking Wounded said:
"Wahabi-sunni beliefs may have taken root. "

Correct my ignorance, but I thought that there were no Wahabi in Afghanistan, outside of foreign arab fighters? I thought that the hard-liners, like the Taliban, were Deobandi?
Your questions make a lot of sense though, I'd be interested to hear what the 'local' politics of it all were.

 

Thomas E. Ricks covered the U.S. military for the Washington Post from 2000 through 2008.

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