News flash for the
president-elect: All our troops are combat troops. It isn't like some
American soldiers stroll around Iraq
unarmed. Nor do the insurgents inquire about the troops' MOS (military
occupational specialties) before detonating an IED. Indeed, I feel safer in Iraq
accompanying an infantry unit on foot
patrol than I do while riding in a convoy of transport soldiers, who are much
more likely to get popped by a roadside bomb. So his promise to get "combat
troops" out of Iraq
in the next 16 months is a phrase that means much less than it appears to. At
any rate, I bet Obama is wrong: I think we are going to have tens of thousands
of troops in Iraq
-- mentoring, advising and engaged in combat -- for many years to come.
The
recent Status of Forces Agreement also means less than it seems. For example, U.S. forces are
supposed to get out of major bases in the cities later this year. But there
really aren't major big bases in the cities now-the last time I was in Iraq I was told there is really only one -- and U.S. military
advisors will remain in urban outposts along with Iraqi forces. I suspect the
SOFA really is most meaningful for the political help it will give Prime
Minister Maliki in getting re-elected at the end of 2009 by taking the American
presence off the table as a wedge issue for Iraqis.
Here are two grim early predictions for the new
administration in Iraq:
- Obama's first year in Iraq is going
to be tougher than Bush's last year. Three reasons for that: First, three
rounds of elections are scheduled in 2009, and those tend to be violent in Iraq. Second,
the easy U.S.
troop withdrawals have been made, and the pullouts at the end of this year will
be riskier. Finally, none of the basic existential problems facing Iraq have
been answered-the power relationships between groups, leadership of the
Shiites, the sharing of oil revenue, the status of the disputed city of Kirkuk,
to name just the most pressing ones. Compounding the problem will be the
incorrect perception of many Americans that the Iraq was all but over when Obama
took office.
- Despite the conventional wisdom
that the war is nearly over, Obama's war in Iraq may last longer than Bush's,
which clocks in at a robust 5 years and 10 months. "So now you back in the trap--just that,
trapped," to quote Big Boi
and Dre. My best guess is that we will have at least 35,000
troops there in 2015, as Obama's likely second term is winding down. (Self-promotional
moment: more on all this in my book "The
Gamble: General Petraeus and the American Military Adventure in Iraq,
2006-08," out Feb. 9 from Penguin
Press.)
Meantime, marinate
a minute on Petraeus's letter to his troops last month: "The year ahead will
contain significant challenges, among them: provincial district and national
elections; resilient enemies still carrying out deadly attacks; lingering
ethno-sectarian mistrust and competition; malign external influences; and a
national referendum on the US-Iraq Strategic Agreement."
To those who think this thing is almost over: What part of "lingering
ethno-sectarian mistrust" don't you understand? And if you think Petraeus was
simply being cautious, listen to
former Iraqi prime minister Iyad Allawi, who was installed by the United States
but whose pessimistic assessment over the weekend was, "I did not imagine the political process would eat itself from inside or
that it would abandon the rule of law and establish political sectarianism."
Photo of Obama with General Petraeus in Iraq by Lorie Jewell/U.S. Army via Getty Images
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