Clueless on Gaza, part 2

Wed, 12/31/2008 - 9:56am

I'd like to know why Hezbollah is being so quiet on the Israeli-Lebanese border. I would think this would be the opportune time for them to make moves. Shows what I know.

Thomas E. Ricks | Permalink | | Comments? Login or register
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Quiet on the Northern Front

by sullygoarmy on Mon, 01/05/2009 - 10:49am

Tom,
I suspect Hezbollah still remembers the disproportinate reponse the IDF launched to recover its two Soldiers back in 2006...could be why they are, for the moment, sitting this one out.

Mike Sullivan

Hezbollah's Calculations

by bryan on Mon, 01/05/2009 - 11:32am

Tom,

I would second Mr. Sullivan's comment - though the 2006 war was in one sense a win for Hezbollah and a loss for Israel, Hezbollah has no desire to risk such a war again right now.

Specifically, Lebanese parliamentary elections are coming up and they are dependent on an alliance with the Christian "Change and Reform" bloc to win a majority and thus gain control of the next government. That alliance would be severely jeopardized if they were seen to start a new war with Israel.

Benjamin Ryan

Hezbollah Attack on Israel Undermines Political Accomplishments

by ??? ?????? on Mon, 01/05/2009 - 5:09pm

All these questions can be answered by reading a few Wikipedia articles:

1. Doha Agreement
2. Lebanese general election, 2009
3. 2006–2008 Lebanese political protests

Hezbollah has shrewdly built on its 2006 military victory to achieve several political victories since then. After forcing the issue of their veto power within the Lebanese government, Hezbollah has achieved nearly all of its near-term political goals, with the promise of more in the upcoming elections.

Before the recent crisis was resolved, people speculated about another Lebanese descent into civil war. A Hezbollah attack on Israel would break up the Lebanese government, undermine or destroy Hezbollah's significant political accomplishments, and raise the specter of civil war. It would accomplish nothing militarily, as Hezbollah no longer has anything to prove to Israel or the world, thanks to Israeli performance during the 2006 war.

Nasrallah is no fool. An attack on Israel is all downside for Hezbollah with no upside.

Lebanese Political Situation

by mike_k714 on Tue, 01/06/2009 - 1:53am

The simple answer to your question is the Lebanese political situation. Everyone in Lebanon remembers what happened in July of 2006, and although that war emboldened Hizbollah in the Arab world and strengthened them politically in Lebanon, that war devastated Lebanon. The Lebanese won't stomach another war and Hizbollah knows this. They are part of the political process (for better or worse). Their is very little support outside the Shiite community in Lebanon to engage Israel in a prolonged conflict. Their movement would pay a heavy price in Lebanon (not so much in the arab world) and they need to maintain their popularity in Lebanon to continue their activities and the advancement of Iran's agenda.

Agreed...but...

by sullygoarmy on Tue, 01/06/2009 - 9:34am

Mike,
I agree with your post. Hizbollah understands the damage to its support base another Israeli incursion into Lebanon may inflict. The question is, how come Hamas cannot figure this out? I agree with the earlier posters that while the ability of Hibollah to weather the Israelis storm in 2006 emboldened them in the eyes of the Arab world, Nasrallah was even quotes as saying he was "shocked" by the intensity of the Israeli response. With this history of Israel's response against a political/military organization bent on its destruction, you'd think Hamas would figure out the potential costs of their continued rocket attacks: a full fledged attack by the full weight of the Israeli military.

Is it just me or was Hizbollah better prepared in terms of its initial defenses? Although reporting is sketchy coming out of Gaza, it seems Hamas was looking for more of a city fight and abandoned any chances of engaging the IDF as they crossed into Gaza. Just thinking aloud.

This question is phrased

by J Thomas on Tue, 01/06/2009 - 4:38pm

This question is phrased backward. What could Hezbollah do to israel? Nothing significant. Last time, Hezbollah was not doing anything unusual, they were behaving normally when israel decided to make a giant retalation. Hezbollah then responded to the israeli invasion. They were if anything surprised by the israeli strikes.

Similarly with Hamas. They had a "cease-fire". Israel repeatedly sent assassination squads into gaza to kill Hamas leaders during the cease-fire. Hamas or somebody then shot a few rockets into israel in retaliation, doing essentially no damage. And suddenly there was no cease-fire and israel was doing airstrikes and invasion again.

You ask why Hezbollah doesn't attack israel? In each recent instance, the timing has been israeli timing. Israel plans a big military action and when they're ready to do it they blame it on some recent action by somebody else. But the people they blame it on are in each case just doing business-as-usual and have no idea that this particular time what they do will get used as a pretext for massive attacks.

Syrian pressure maybe

by Lennart Berggren on Wed, 01/07/2009 - 4:27am

Syria was informed before the invasion by the Israelis that if Hezbollah started anything, the retaliation would be directed against Syrian targets. That might also have prevented any moves.

When has Hezbollah ever

by J Thomas on Fri, 01/09/2009 - 11:50am

When has Hezbollah ever attacked israel except in retaliation for israeli attacks?

As long as israel stays out of lebanon they probably don't have much to worry about from Hezbollah.