Kill the people who killed our ambassador to Libya.

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A Foreign Service Officer writes to me about Romney:

Thank you for your posting (and links) on Governor Romney's response to the death of Ambassador Stevens. I did not know him, but I am surrounded here at State by people who did, and I can tell you that this is a building filled with shock and grief.

President Obama and Secretary Clinton each made statements that were appropriate, both to the public and to the Foreign Service. And it was important to us that our president came to the department to be with us yesterday and to offer comfort. Tomorrow afternoon, see how many people go to Andrews to welcome Ambassador Stevens home.

I felt physically ill when I first heard Governor Romney's remarks, and incredulous that he repeated them later. It appeared to me that the death of Foreign Service Officers was to him nothing more than an opportunity to score cheap political points. And this man wants to be our leader?

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Sometimes a newspaper editorial gets it exactly right. This is one such time. Read the whole thing, if you can. But pay attention especially to the last paragraph, which states that:

As for Mr. Romney, he would do well to consider the example of Republican former secretary of state Condoleezza Rice, who issued a statement Wednesday lamenting "the tragic loss of life at our consulate," praising Mr. Stevens as "a wonderful officer and a terrific diplomat" and offering "thoughts and prayers" to "all the loved ones of the fallen." That was the appropriate response.

Not persuaded? Then read more here from Republican apparatchik Ed Rogers. And more here from James Fallows, who concludes that Romney isn't ready for that 3 am phone call. Here's a roundup

(HT to RD) 

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Posted By Thomas E. Ricks

This is the man we lost in Libya. 

(HT to MD)

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Posted By Thomas E. Ricks

While Tom Ricks is away from his blog, he has selected a few of his favorite posts to re-run. We will be posting a few every day until he returns. This originally ran on June 16, 2011.

Remember in early April I highlighted a David Ignatius column saying that Qaddafi was weaker than people thought and predicting that the old coot would run out of money in three months? Well, the bills may be coming due. John McCreary, another smart guy, notes that pro-Qaddafi fighters deserted a town in western Libya on the road to Tripoli. He observes, "This development is significant because it is the second instance in a month in which pro-Qadhafi fighters just stopped fighting. That is a strong suggestion that their pay or their contracts ran out."

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EXPLORE:LIBYA

Posted By Thomas E. Ricks

While Tom Ricks is away from his blog, he has selected a few of his favorite posts to re-run. We will be posting a few every day until he returns. This originally ran on March 22, 2011.

Everybody's going all wobbly over Libya, except those who never liked the idea in the first place. Tom's advice: Calm down. We have done what we set out to do in Libya. We kicked the door down, and with radars and SAM sites degraded, have made it possible for lesser air forces to patrol the skies over Qaddafi.

We should now say, OK, we have created the conditions, time for you all to have the courage of your convictions. The goal now for the United States, I think, is a negative one: To not be conducting a no-fly zone over Libya 5 years or even 5 months from now. If the French and Italians want to park the good ships Charles de Gaulle and Garibaldi off the Libyan coast, good. And if the Arab states want to maintain an air cap over Benghazi, fine. Step right up, fellas.

As for the American military, let's knock off the muttering in the ranks about clear goals and exit strategies. Fellas, you need to understand this is not a football game but a soccer match. For the last 10 years, our generals have talked about the need to become adaptable, to live with ambiguity. Well, this is it. The international consensus changes every day, so our operations need to change with it. Such is the nature of war, as Clausewitz reminds us. Better Obama's cautious ambiguity than Bush's false clarity. Going into Iraq, scooping up the WMD, and getting out by September 2003 -- now that was a nice clear plan. And a dangerously foolish one, too. The clearer we are now about command and control, rules of engagement and other organizational aspects of the intervention, the harder it will be to pass if off. Better they do it in their own way than we make it so they can only do it our way.

What we need now is good, candid, hard-hitting discussions between our military leaders and their civilian overseers. Because war changes the reality of the situation every day, it is essential for the operational, or campaign, level of war to be connected to the political level. That is the purpose of strategy, and of those free and frank discussions.

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EXPLORE:LIBYA

Posted By Thomas E. Ricks

He says fears about it falling apart or into civil war are overblown:

  ... on visits to Benghazi, Misrata and Tripoli, to find that there were no militiamen to be seen, that most things were functioning normally, that there were police at traffic intersections, that there were children's carnivals open till late, families out, that jewelry shops were open till 8 pm, that Arabs and Africans were working side by side, and that people were proud in Benghazi of having demonstrated against calls for decentralizing the country.

As someone who has lived in conflict situations, I take as a very serious gauge of security whether shops are open and how late they stay open. Jewelry shops in particular are easily looted, and the loot is light and easy to fence. But in Tripoli there was loads of gold in rows of jewelry shops, along with clothing stores newly stocked with Italian fashions."

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Remember how I found command and control for the Libyan situation kind of confusing? Apparently so did others.

The Air Force is now folding the 17th Air Force, the designated unit for African operations. Their jobs are being tossed back to Air Force Europe, which had to do the first combat mission that came along for Air Force Africa anyways. 

(HT to JT)

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The new issue of Prism has a fascinating article about American command arrangements for the Libya operation earlier this year.

The authors, three souls who toiled in the lower depths of the Joint Staff's J-7, write that, "the decision was made to retain AFRICOM as the supported command, with USEUCOM, USCENTCOM, USTRANSCOM and U.S. Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM) in support."

Sounds simple, but wait: AFRICOM doesn't have any forces, so EUCOM became "de facto force provider." It is almost as if EUCOM were acting like a service. (Which would make it our sixth service, after the Army, Navy, Marines, Air Force, and SOCOM, which already effectively has its own civilian-led secretariat, in the SO/LIC bureaucracy.)  

It gets even more complicated.  Many aircraft were flying from bases in EUCOM's area of responsibility, so EUCOM "retained OPCON of these forces." What's more, EUCOM had other fish to fry, so reported Adm. Locklear, "We were responding to OPCON pleas of the provider to make his life easier rather than the OPCON needs of the commander." It's like a waterfall running in reverse.   

Also, it turned out that AFRICOM lacked the ability to actually run an operation. (Interesting side fact: Half its staff is civilian, and it had never rehearsed to run anything.)

Final bonus fact: The U.S. military has apparently come up with the worst acronym I have heard in a long time: "VOCO." The article's authors quote an Army brigadier as stating that in the Libyan operation, there was "Lots of VOCO between all levels of command." It stands for "verbal orders of the commander." But hold on: Aren't all  orders are verbal, unless the guy is pointing or something? What the poor general meant was "oral orders of the commander." That would be "OOCO." I'd prefer "Unwritten orders of the commander," which would be "UOCO," but that is too hard to pronounce. It could make you poco loco in the coco.   

And remember at this point we haven't even gotten into the command arrangements with the other 14 nations in the anti-Qaddafi coalition (AQC).

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In Sunday's Washington Post, Fouad Ajami stated that, "Even when the rescue mission for the Libyans came, it was late, and the push was from Paris and London, not Washington."

Au contraire, responds an intelligence veteran I know. The French and British effectively "brought knives to a gunfight," he said, and had to be bailed out by the U.S. government. "The real ammunition came from the U.S."

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Posted By Thomas E. Ricks

Qood.

(In the foto, that's him on the left, before he went all Bob Dylan.)

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What a story! It turns out that four military personnel deployed to the U.S. Embassy to help with security and explosive ordnance disposal. For Fox, this apparently constitutes President Obama breaking his vow not to insert troops. The article actually begins, "Despite repeated assurances from President Obama and military leaders that the U.S. would not send uniformed military personnel into Libya …"

I wonder if one day having worked for Fox News during our time will be regarded like being a supporter of Sen. Joe McCarthy in the 1950s. I think Fox may be the most destructive force in American society nowadays, basically pouring poison into the stream of our political discourse.

(HT to a captain of the Marines)

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Posted By Thomas E. Ricks

That's the article I'd like to read by everyone who predicted a stalemate or quagmire in which the United States eventually would have to insert ground troops. (For those of you too hurried to click through to all them links, I am calling out the following members of the diverse quagmire/stalemate coalition: Dov Zakheim, Andrew Sullivan, Alexander Cockburn, Anne Applebaum, Richard Norton-Taylor, Melanie Clarke, the German government, the editorial page of the Wall Street Journal, the Xinhua news service, and the Beirut Daily Star.)

Who wants to go first?

Meanwhile, from Fareed Zakaria, here is one of the best summaries I have seen of the meaning of the Libyan war:

The Libyan intervention offers a new model for the West. It was a humanitarian mission with strategic interests as well -- support for the Arab Spring and the new aspirations of the people of the Middle East. It was also a new model in that it involved an America that insisted on legitimacy and burden sharing, that allowed the locals to own their revolution. That means, however, that it is in the hands of the Libyans. They can avoid the mistakes of Iraq, which makes the challenge before them even more daunting. But it is a challenge they have eagerly sought and one for which they will find help from friends around the world.

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By Patrick McKinney
Best Defense department of Maghreb affairs

In late October 1956, British and French forces aided Israel's seizure of the Suez Canal from Egypt. In March 2011, an allied force including British and French forces intervened in Libya to establish a no-fly zone and protect rebels from the ruling Gaddafi regime. Half a century apart, these actions in North African defined trans-Atlantic defense. The Suez Crisis heralded an era of American leadership and action, while Libya has shown that, though powerful, America intends to rely on its allies to carry larger burdens, and take responsibility for their own regions. America once drove and financed western security, but due to fiscal shortfalls and a decade of conflict, it no longer intends to guarantee European security.

In 1956, the once-powerful European states were still weakened from the world war and faced forceful colonial independence movements. The French lost Indochina in 1954 and the situation in Algeria continued to deteriorate, while the Suez Canal Zone in Egypt was England's last foothold in the Middle East. After tense negotiations, Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser threatened to nationalize the canal as sovereign Egyptian territory, and in response, Israel, England, and France coordinated an invasion with the pretext of securing the canal for world commerce. They failed to inform the United States of their intent and expected American support or indifference. To their surprise, they received neither.

President Dwight D. Eisenhower forcefully protested the Suez invasion and demanded that foreign forces withdraw from Egypt. Though he had little compassion for Nasser and his regime, Eisenhower intended to support international order and avoid unnecessary international conflicts. He condemned the invasion, saying, "We believe these actions to have been taken in error. For we do not accept the use of force as a wise and proper instrument for the settlement of international disputes." Israel, England, and France were surprised by the American response and false expectations of support. Their forces began withdrawal from the Suez Canal Zone, and returned control to Egypt.

After the conflict, American authority and consent became pre-eminent in the Trans-Atlantic partnership.  Through NATO, America assured European defense from the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact, and American priorities were NATO's priorities. England lost its Middle Eastern influence and decided to influence western and world security through cooperation in its "special relationship" with the United States. Embarrassed and affronted by the perceived betrayal, France took the alternate path and sought to set its own defense priorities. France demanded a restructure of NATO leadership in 1958, and began the withdrawal of its forces from the command in the 1960s. France remained outside of NATO for more than forty years until operations in Afghanistan and officially returned its forces in 2009.

Read on

And that is a headline I thought I'd never write about Professor Chomsky. The old-school hard-core MIT leftist has issued a letter denouncing his old friend Hugo Chavez for undermining Venezuelan democracy.

Better late than never.

Meanwhile, David Frost, who may be sleazier than I thought, seems to have been pocketed lots of money to help Col. Qaddafi with his image.

(HTs to BH and Dr. AM)

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This should have been step one. Basic rule here: Indirect action is better than direct. Before you commit your own military forces, help the locals help themselves. This also helps with extracting yourself: You win when the locals can defend themselves.

Btw, this apparently is one reason the rebels have been doing better in western Libya lately.

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Posted By Thomas E. Ricks

I continue to think that intervening in Libya was the right thing to do, but I still don't think this Obama administration statement to Congress passes the laugh test. Firing cruise missiles at someone isn't an act of war? And I wonder if the Air Force and Navy know that it ain't a war if it doesn't involve ground troops.

The twisted logic here reminds me of the Bush administration's legal rationale for embracing torture. 

The President is of the view that the current U.S. military operations in Libya are consistent with the War Powers Resolution and do not under that law require further congressional authorization, because U.S. military operations are distinct from the kind of 'hostilities' contemplated by the Resolution's 60 day termination provision. U.S. forces are playing a constrained and supporting role in a multinational coalition, whose operations are both legitimated by and limited to the terms of a United Nations Security Council Resolution that authorizes the use of force solely to protect civilians and civilian populated areas under attack or threat of attack and to enforce a no-fly zone and an arms embargo. U.S. operations do not involve sustained fighting or active exchanges of fire with hostile forces, nor do they involve the presence of U.S. ground troops, U.S. casualties or a serious threat thereof, or any significant chance of escalation into a conflict characterized by those factors.

(HT to BB)

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Posted By Thomas E. Ricks

Remember in early April I highlighted a David Ignatius column saying that Qaddafi was weaker than people thought and predicting that the old coot would run out of money in three months? Well, the bills may be coming due. John McCreary, another smart guy, notes that pro-Qaddafi fighters deserted a town in western Libya on the road to Tripoli. He observes, "This development is significant because it is the second instance in a month in which pro-Qadhafi fighters just stopped fighting. That is a strong suggestion that their pay or their contracts ran out."

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I certainly don't endorse all the comments posted on this blog, nor even all the guest columns. Case in point: I disagree with the argument below, because I don't think we want our corporals and lieutenants to try to be constitutional lawyers weighing each order they receive. (Or even our generals, like Douglas MacArthur, who got fired in part for following by his own reading of the Constitution.) I think people need to be taught that the issue of "legal orders" applies to war crimes and the like, not to whether one believes the executive branch has abided by the War Powers Act.

Yet I believe the column below is worth reading. If we try to crush such discussions, they will take place only furtively, and so become ill-informed.

By "A Midshipman"
Best Defense guest correspondent

I'm a Midshipman at the Naval Academy and have been talking with officers from the submarine that launched most of the American cruise missiles into Libya. We've had some interesting discussions about the legality of the operations at this point and whether the personnel still engaging the enemy there are breaking their oath to obey only legal orders. 

President Obama's decision to avoid seeking Congress's permission to continue America's role in the Libyan conflict marks one more step in the long march toward a balance of power within the federal government that is more Napoleonic than democratic. Since the Vietnam War, President's have not felt obliged to seek a Congressional declaration of war before committing American lives to conflicts abroad. Every sitting President since Nixon has ordered the military to battle without going through the channels prescribed in the Constitution.

In their decision to place the power to declare war with Congress, the writers of the constitution sought to limit the ability of the president to use military force as an autocrat. Unfortunately, the founding fathers had never seen an undeclared war and didn't foresee the emergence of such a beast. We are left to deal with this oversight.

The conflict in Libya has now continued for more than 60 days without congressional approval. Not only is this unconstitutional, but it is in direct opposition to the War Powers Act, passed in the wake of the Vietnam War.

Officers of the United States Military take an oath to obey only lawful and constitutional orders and refuse all others. The servicemen and servicewomen who are currently fighting over Libya took that oath. It is their professional obligation and ethical duty to disobey their orders until constitutional and legal requirements are either changed or met.

The pressure that a refusal of orders would place on the President would be impossible to ignore. Even if the ensuing legal debate were inconclusive, no President would likely venture to take action which could result in a similar response. The constitutional balance of power would be restored because a professional precedent would have been established within the military, if not a broader legal one.

Congressman Abraham Lincoln once remarked, "Kings had always been involving and impoverishing their people in wars, pretending generally, if not always, that the good of the people was the object. This our Convention understood to be the most oppressive of all Kingly oppressions; and they resolved to so frame the Constitution that no one man should hold the power of bringing this oppression upon us." By giving only Congress the power to declare war, the constitution takes out the personal element that was so often a cause of war in the era of Kings. While President Obama is certainly no oppressor, the trend that he is reinforcing opens up the possibility that the time will come where we will have to contend with a leader who is. 

The author is a third year student at the U.S. Naval Academy who has decided not to be identified more precisely.

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One of the great things about CNAS conferences is you get different viewpoints and smart audiences. After the talks by Kaplan and Lynch at the sponsors' breakfast, Francis "Bing" West, who was sitting near me, said he found them wildly over optimistic about the next several decades, which he thinks will be dominated by the proliferation of nuclear weaponry. But let him tell it his own way:  "That was insane. The lesson of Libya is, Get a nuclear weapon and tell everyone to go fuck themselves. Qaddafi got rid of his nukes and we said, 'OK, you're out of there.'"

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Regular readers of this blog know that I have a lot of admiration for the work of David Ignatius -- both his columns and his novels.

So I was surprised to see his denunciation on the deployment of armed drones to Libya. He thinks that in the Arab world they have become a symbol of targeted assassination.

Perhaps so. But deploying them in Libya is a sign that the U.S. is not bugging out on its NATO allies nor on the Libyan rebels, who are Arabs.

Frankly, I am surprised it has taken the U.S. government so long to get the Predators over Libya. They should have been there on Day One. This is exactly the type of move that makes sense here: Putting U.S. assets into the operation in support of an intervention led by other members of NATO, but supported by the United States, especially in areas where the U.S. can offer unique capabilities, especially when U.S. aircrews are not endangered by the deployment.

In this case, I can see many more uses for drones than the assassination of Col. Qaddafi, which Ignatius figures is their likely use. We have seen Qaddafi's forces adapting to the presence of NATO aircraft overhead-for example, moving from tanks to pickup trucks. So closer observation is needed before striking. That requires getting down low, but that can sucker a NATO aircraft into getting hit. Drones are a good answer to this tactical problem. Likewise, they can get down under clouds in bad weather, taking away from Qaddafi's goods the advantage of attacking under overcasts. Plus, drones can "loiter" over a target, which helps both with observation and deterrence. They even can harass the foe-on exercises at the Army's National Training Center, I once was with an "opposition force" ambush team that crouched down warily when they head that lawnmower-like buzzing of a drone somewhere overhead. They hated that noise.

My question is, What took so long to make this move? I worry that the national security establishment -- the Pentagon, the CIA and even State Department-are slow-rolling this mission a bit, foot-dragging by "defining terms" and "seeking legal clarification." I know the military doesn't much like the Libyan intervention, and worries about mission creep. But they are supposed to follow legal orders. Part of this slow response probably has been President Obama's fault, because he was very cautious to act and then when he did, he emphasized U.S. minimalism. That sort of nuance runs contrary to U.S. national security culture, and so may have thrown some sand in the gears. Still, fellas, he is the president, so let's be careful about shirking. If your conscience can't take it, you know where the door is. 

Meanwhile, here's an interesting take on Libya from retired Marine Col. Gary Anderson, who I think has appeared in all three of my non-fiction books.  

And here is Sebastian Junger's meditation on the loss of his friend and Restrepo collaborator Tim Hetherington in Libya. Worth reading

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Posted By Thomas E. Ricks

Tim Hetherington, whom many Best Defense readers know from his film Restrepo, was killed yesterday in Libya along with Chris Hondros of Getty.

This compelling note from C.J. Chivers hits pretty close to home. I know too many stories like this, particularly one about a war reporter who was shown her the body bag holding her dead husband, also a war reporter. Her first reaction was, that couldn't be him, he isn't that short. He had been in a car that hit a land mine and his legs had been blown off.  

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Ever notice how a passage from an old book can suddenly take on new meaning? On our rainy Saturday afternoon over the weekend I was checking something in Maj. Gen. (ret.) Robert Scales' Firepower in Limited War (rev. ed), and this paragraph on p. 98 jumped out at me:

A phenomenon of recent history has been the disturbing habit among Western nations, the United States in particular, to expect too much from aerial firepower. Perhaps this expectation has been the product of our search for a technical means to win wars without expending lives. Whatever the cause, the use of airpower in Vietnam certainly followed the historical precedent. Policymakers with an imperfect understanding of the true limitations of modern airpower concluded all too readily that those wondrously destructive weapons of aerial warfare would be able to persuade the enemy to come to terms with a minimum of human investment.

Tom again: So, while I still think that President Obama had to intervene in Libya, yeah, I understand why this air campaign is making many of my friends very nervous.  

Meanwhile, I see where veteran intelligence analyst John McCreary is growing more pessimistic: "The survival of the Benghazi regime will be nothing short of miraculous, if events continue as they have this weekend." Suddenly a stalemate doesn't look so bad.

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Posted By Thomas E. Ricks

From C.J. Chivers' terrific blog from Libya: "A quick note: we have a terrible satellite connection here, and that and the ongoing battle beside the building we are working in has made swift updates difficult."

If the Pulitzer board doesn't give this guy something eventually, shame on them.

(I'd give Abu Mook a HT on this but I wrote it before I saw his item on same.)

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As John McCreary's NightWatch concludes that, "The rebellion is approaching collapse," here is an exchange from yesterday's (Thursday) hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee. I was surprised to see Gen. Carter Ham, who as head of the Africa Command oversaw the first part of the intervention in Libya, say what he did here. He's probably lucky the White House is distracted by the budget negotiations.

The exchange is a bit murky because Sen. James Webb (D, Fields of Fire) couched his question in terms of a post-Qaddafi force, but Ham did not seem to answer it in those terms, but rather as a force to be interposed between the regime and the rebels.

SEN. WEBB: I would assume that planners are considering the prospect that there might be an international force on the ground in Libya in the future. Let's say not boots on the ground in combat, but if Qaddafi leaves, is that in the cards?

GEN. HAM: Sir, I think that is certainly one potential outcome of this, an international force of some composition intervening between the regime and the opposition forces.

SEN. WEBB: Would it be a consideration for the United States military to be on the ground in that situation for you?

GEN. HAM: Sir, I suspect there might be some consideration of that. My personal view at this point would be that that's probably not the ideal circumstance, again, for the regional reactions that that would -- that having American boots on the ground would entail.

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"Colonel Khaddafi is a madman. There is no way of predicting his behavior. What is the political goal ...To provoke him into something?...

"Now, I'm not saying we should back away from doing something when resolute action is called for. I am saying that, between the generals and the politicians -- and the generals need to be the foremost spokesmen for this -- when the president or secdef says, 'Let's send a force to do this, that, and the other thing,' some general needs to ask, 'What is your political goal?' In my opinion, the belligerent posturing of this administration has created turmoil in parts of the world where there need not be turmoil today. Eventually, if they keep it up, it's going to get us in trouble."

--Army Gen. (Ret.) Donn Starry, February 1986, on President Reagan's intervention in Libya. (P. 1097, oral history interview, in Press On! Selected Works of General Donn A. Starry, Vol. 2, Lewis Sorley, ed.)    

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Posted By Thomas E. Ricks

Boy am I getting sick of the word "ragtag." Anybody got another convenient one word way to describe a disorganized, untrained, ill-disciplined force? Bonus points for alliteration.

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Best Defense comment of the day comes from "Ironcapt" and should be filed under "dunno whether to laugh or cry":

I'll admit, at first, I shared Exum's concerns about the Boys from Benghazi being a little too close to the radical Islamist camp, with their track record of sending suicide bombers to Iraq. I think I may have overreacted. If these guys were hard core AQ types, they'd probably be winning more battles.

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By Elizabeth Flora
Best Defense bureau of eastern Libyan affairs

"Who is the Libyan opposition?" Questions regarding the nature of the uprising have confounded journalists and U.S. officials alike over the past few weeks, so when Ambassador Ali Aujali of the Libyan Transitional Council gave a talk at the Center for American Progress yesterday afternoon, it was particularly apropos that this question was the title selected. The wide variation in media rhetoric over the last week, ranging from fearful questions about al Qaeda among the rebels to proposals that the selfsame rebels be called "freedom fighters," has no doubt stemmed from a massive dearth of information that compelled journalists to flock to this event seeking enlightenment.

Aujali maintained that we "cannot believe that al Qaeda or extremists" have any role in the opposition. He was insistent on reassuring Americans of this point in order to make the case that the United States and the rest of NATO should help the rebels in their goal of ousting Qaddafi, stating, "If we want the opposition to achieve victory on the ground, they need help." In addition to continued air strikes, he is also requesting military training, weaponry, U.S. recognition of the Transitional Council as the legitimate ruling body of Libya, as well as access to Gaddafi's frozen assets.

Throughout the discussion, Aujali was far more eager to discuss the occupation's need for aid than to delve into details about the power structure of the Transitional Council. Upon being questioned about whether or not he saw a lack of cohesion in the Council's political or military leadership, he argued that this was "not a big concern" because the opposition is united in the common goal that "Qaddafi must go." In response to concerns about the disorganized, untrained nature of the rebels, he contended that there is now far "more training" and "more discipline," referring to the troops as "well-organized."

Aujali posited that specifics such as the size of the rebel forces or the exact weaponry needed were not as important as the fact that the Libyan people are fighting "for their future" while Qaddafi is fighting for "nothing but for one family to control Libya." He ruled out any potential outcome save total opposition victory (i.e. a stalemate in which Libya would be divided in two) stating, "No Libyan will accept that." According to him, the Libyans "will fight until they get rid of Qaddafi."

Despite his adamancy about the opposition's strong resolve, he did imply that its goal of ousting Qaddafi is unlikely to be realized if more support is not immediately forthcoming. He argued that air strikes must take out Qaddafi's forces before they reach and occupy major cities and ominously stated that "time is not on our side."

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For my money, David Ignatius is the best intelligence reporter around, even though he is officially a columnist (and novelist), not a beat journalist. He had a piece that ran over the weekend and so unfortunately might be missed by many.

High points:

--"Gaddafi is slowly running out of money -- and his inner circle is showing early signs of collapse."

--On the CIA presence inside Libya: "At present there are only several dozen operatives, including full-time case officers from the Special Activities Division, which manages covert actions, supplemented by former officers, known internally as 'cadres,' who are on direct contract to the agency. Their tasks include providing clandestine communications links for the Libyan opposition, contacting and assessing the rebels, and providing money and other assistance to Libyans to break with Gaddafi."

--"The agency has some experience in Libya thanks to previous covert actions there, including one code-named 'Sprint' some years ago." Tom: I have no idea of what "Sprint" was, but an intriguing detail. It sounds to me like someone at CIA is telling Ignatius, Hey, it isn't our first time around the block here.

--The task ahead is bribing tribal leaders to split with Qaddafi. Tom: I have been hearing this from others.

--"an intelligence source said that his [Qaddafi's] bankroll will last him another two to three months."

That's a lot of news to stuff into on op-ed column.

Iggy's bottom line: This guy is weaker than people think.

On the other hand, this piece by a secondary culprit in the Iraq mess just felt to me like Jeffery Dahmer correcting someone's table manners. I had a visceral unhappiness reading it, and was surprised to see that my friend and colleague Andrew X-Man twitted such a different reaction to it.

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Thomas E. Ricks covered the U.S. military for the Washington Post from 2000 through 2008.

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